⚽ Premier League

Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Leeds vs Newcastle in the Premier League. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Leeds face Newcastle in the Premier League, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Leeds have 1 win from their last 3, while Newcastle have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 2 meetings, Newcastle won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Leeds win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Leeds vs Newcastle with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 1.34 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	7.8%	5.2%	2.3%	0.8%
1	8.8%	11.7%	7.9%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	8.8%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
3	3.3%	4.4%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Leeds winDrawNewcastle win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Leeds vs Newcastle is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Leeds win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.83, 54% model probability, -1.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Leeds 40%Draw 28%Newcastle 31%

40%28%31%

40%

Leeds Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

-1.2%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Leeds and Newcastle. Wins shown from Leeds’s perspective: 1 drawn · Newcastle 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-07	Newcastle	4 – 3	Leeds	L
2025-08-30	Leeds	0 – 0	Newcastle	D

📈 Recent form

Leeds

Leeds come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Nottingham Forest. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-6 at Chelsea.

LChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
DLeeds 1-1 BrentfordPremier League
WNottingham Forest 0-2 LeedsLeague Cup
WNottingham Forest 0-1 LeedsPremier League

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League
WNewcastle 3-2 West BromLeague Cup
DNewcastle 2-2 LiverpoolPremier League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Leeds at 40% to win and Newcastle at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Leeds win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 3.45	-1.7%
Leeds Win	40%	@ 2.38	-3.9%
Newcastle Win	31%	@ 2.95	-8.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Leeds or Draw at 1.38 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Leeds or Draw	68%	@ 1.38	-6.5%
Newcastle or Draw	58%	@ 1.57	-8.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 2.5	54%	@ 1.83	-1.2%
Over 3.5	32%	@ 3.10	-1.7%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.25	-3.0%
Under 3.5	68%	@ 1.36	-7.1%
Under 2.5	46%	@ 1.97	-9.4%
Under 1.5	22%	@ 3.90	-12.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.63	-5.7%
BTTS No	42%	@ 2.17	-8.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leeds vs Newcastle?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 78% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Newcastle?

Our model makes a Leeds win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Leeds vs Newcastle.

What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Newcastle?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Leeds and 1.34 for Newcastle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Leeds and Newcastle play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.