Türkiye

Mon 28 Sep18:45Upcoming

Italy

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Türkiye vs Italy Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Türkiye vs Italy in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Türkiye face Italy in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely result at 38%, implying a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Türkiye vs Italy with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Türkiye win	34%
Draw	28%
Italy win	38%
Over 2.5 goals	50%
Both teams to score	56%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.30 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.5%	6.4%	2.9%	1.0%
1	9.2%	12.4%	8.4%	3.8%	1.3%
2	6.0%	8.1%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.6%	3.5%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Türkiye winDrawItaly win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Türkiye vs Italy. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 50%. Both teams to score: yes at 56%.

📊 Key numbers

Türkiye 34%Draw 28%Italy 38%

34%28%38%

38%

Italy Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Türkiye

Türkiye come into this game with 4 wins from their last 4, scoring 8 and conceding 1. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FYR Macedonia. They have found the net in every one of those 4 matches.

WVenezuela 1-2 TürkiyeFriendlies
WTürkiye 4-0 FYR MacedoniaFriendlies
WKosovo 0-1 TürkiyeWorld Cup – Qualificat
WTürkiye 1-0 RomaniaWorld Cup – Qualificat

Italy

Italy come into this game with 3 wins from their last 3, scoring 4 and conceding 0. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Northern Ireland.

WGreece 0-1 ItalyFriendlies
WLuxembourg 0-1 ItalyFriendlies
WItaly 2-0 Northern IrelandWorld Cup – Qualificat

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Türkiye at 34% to win and Italy at 38%, with the draw at 28%. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy Win	38%	@ 2.45
Türkiye Win	34%	@ 2.70
Draw	28%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Italy or Draw at 1.44 (66% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy or Draw	66%	@ 1.44
Türkiye or Draw	62%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.90
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.90
Over 3.5	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Türkiye vs Italy?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 38%.

Who is the favourite for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our model makes an Italy win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Türkiye vs Italy.

What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Italy?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Türkiye and 1.35 for Italy. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Türkiye and Italy play?

Kick-off is Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.