Italy

Fri 25 Sep18:45Upcoming

Belgium

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Italy vs Belgium Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Italy vs Belgium in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Friday 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Italy face Belgium in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Friday 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely result at 43%, implying a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Italy vs Belgium with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Italy win	43%
Draw	27%
Belgium win	29%
Over 2.5 goals	53%
Both teams to score	58%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.55 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.6%	4.8%	2.0%	0.6%
1	9.4%	11.8%	7.4%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.1%	5.7%	2.4%	0.7%
3	3.8%	4.7%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Italy winDrawBelgium win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Italy vs Belgium. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 53%. Both teams to score: yes at 58%.

📊 Key numbers

Italy 43%Draw 27%Belgium 29%

43%27%29%

43%

Italy Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Italy

Italy come into this game with 3 wins from their last 3, scoring 4 and conceding 0. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Northern Ireland.

WGreece 0-1 ItalyFriendlies
WLuxembourg 0-1 ItalyFriendlies
WItaly 2-0 Northern IrelandWorld Cup – Qualificat

Belgium

Belgium come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 4, scoring 13 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Tunisia. They have found the net in every one of those 4 matches.

WBelgium 5-0 TunisiaFriendlies
WCroatia 0-2 BelgiumFriendlies
DMexico 1-1 BelgiumFriendlies
WUSA 2-5 BelgiumFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Italy at 43% to win and Belgium at 29%, with the draw at 27%. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy Win	43%	@ 2.20
Belgium Win	29%	@ 3.25
Draw	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Italy or Draw at 1.36 (71% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy or Draw	71%	@ 1.36
Belgium or Draw	57%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	42%	@ 2.20

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs Belgium?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 43%.

Who is the favourite for Italy vs Belgium?

Our model makes an Italy win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Italy vs Belgium.

What is the predicted score for Italy vs Belgium?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for Italy and 1.25 for Belgium. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Italy and Belgium play?

Kick-off is Friday 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.