Sweden

Mon 28 Sep18:45Upcoming

Poland

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Sweden vs Poland Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sweden vs Poland in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sweden face Poland in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Sweden win the most likely result at 49%, implying a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sweden vs Poland with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Sweden win	49%
Draw	26%
Poland win	25%
Over 2.5 goals	50%
Both teams to score	52%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.60 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	7.4%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.3%	11.9%	6.2%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.5%	5.0%	1.7%	0.5%
3	4.8%	5.1%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.9%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sweden winDrawPoland win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Sweden vs Poland. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Sweden win is the most likely result at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 50%. Both teams to score: yes at 52%.

📊 Key numbers

Sweden 49%Draw 26%Poland 25%

49%26%25%

49%

Sweden Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Sweden

Sweden come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 4, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Ukraine. They have found the net in every one of those 4 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Norway.

DSweden 2-2 GreeceFriendlies
LNorway 3-1 SwedenFriendlies
WSweden 3-2 PolandWorld Cup – Qualificat
WUkraine 1-3 SwedenWorld Cup – Qualificat

Poland

Poland come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 4, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Albania. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Ukraine.

DPoland 2-2 NigeriaFriendlies
LPoland 0-2 UkraineFriendlies
LSweden 3-2 PolandWorld Cup – Qualificat
WPoland 2-1 AlbaniaWorld Cup – Qualificat

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sweden at 49% to win and Poland at 25%, with the draw at 26%. The bookmaker market makes a Sweden win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Sweden Win	49%	@ 1.85
Draw	26%	@ 3.50
Poland Win	25%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sweden or Draw at 1.25 (75% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Sweden or Draw	75%	@ 1.25
Poland or Draw	51%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.90
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.90
Over 3.5	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	49%	@ 1.91

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sweden vs Poland?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Sweden win is the most likely result at 49%.

Who is the favourite for Sweden vs Poland?

Our model makes a Sweden win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Sweden vs Poland.

What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Poland?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Sweden and 1.05 for Poland. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sweden and Poland play?

Kick-off is Monday 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.