Italy

Mon 5 Oct3-1Finished

Türkiye

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Italy vs Türkiye Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Italy vs Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Italy 3-1 Türkiye

Italy vs Türkiye finished 3-1. Italy won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Italy face Türkiye in the upcoming UEFA Nations League tips, kicking off Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Italy won 2. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely result at 66%, implying a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Italy vs Türkiye with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Italy win	66%
Draw	19%
Türkiye win	15%
Over 2.5 goals	64%
Both teams to score	56%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.25 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	3.9%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
1	8.7%	8.7%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
2	9.8%	9.8%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.4%	7.4%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
4	4.1%	4.1%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

Italy winDrawTürkiye win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Italy vs Türkiye. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 66%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 64%. Both teams to score: yes at 56%.

📊 Key numbers

Italy 66%Draw 19%Türkiye 15%

66%19%15%

66%

Italy Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Italy and Türkiye. Wins shown from Italy’s perspective: Italy 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-05	Italy	3 – 1	Türkiye	W
2026-09-28	Türkiye	1 – 4	Italy	W

📈 Recent form

Italy

Italy come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Türkiye. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Belgium.

WItaly 3-1 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
DFrance 1-1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
WTürkiye 1-4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
LItaly 0-2 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
WGreece 0-1 ItalyFriendlies

Türkiye

Türkiye come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Venezuela. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Italy.

LItaly 3-1 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
LBelgium 3-0 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League
LTürkiye 1-4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
LTürkiye 0-1 FranceUEFA Nations League
WVenezuela 1-2 TürkiyeFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Italy at 66% to win and Türkiye at 15%, with the draw at 19%. The bookmaker market makes an Italy win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy Win	66%	@ 1.45
Draw	19%	@ 5.00
Türkiye Win	15%	@ 6.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Italy or Draw at 1.12 (85% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Italy or Draw	85%	@ 1.12
Türkiye or Draw	34%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	64%	@ 1.48
Under 3.5	58%	@ 1.62
Over 3.5	42%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs Türkiye?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, an Italy win is the most likely result at 66%.

Who is the favourite for Italy vs Türkiye?

Our model makes an Italy win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for Italy vs Türkiye.

What is the predicted score for Italy vs Türkiye?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Italy and 1.00 for Türkiye. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Italy and Türkiye play?

Kick-off is Monday 05 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.