Croatia

Tue 6 Oct1-2Finished

Spain

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Croatia vs Spain Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Croatia vs Spain in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Croatia 1-2 Spain

Croatia vs Spain finished 1-2. Spain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Croatia face Spain in the upcoming UEFA Nations League tips, kicking off Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Spain won 2. The bookmaker market makes a Spain win the most likely result at 76%, implying a 0.8-2.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Croatia vs Spain with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Croatia win	10%
Draw	15%
Spain win	76%
Over 2.5 goals	65%
Both teams to score	50%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 0.80 – 2.55 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	8.9%	11.4%	9.7%	6.2%
1	2.8%	7.2%	9.1%	7.8%	4.9%
2	1.1%	2.9%	3.7%	3.1%	2.0%
3	0.3%	0.8%	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-2

Croatia winDrawSpain win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Croatia vs Spain. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Spain win is the most likely result at 76%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 65%. Both teams to score: yes at 50%.

📊 Key numbers

Croatia 10%Draw 15%Spain 76%

10%15%76%

76%

Spain Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Croatia and Spain. Wins shown from Croatia’s perspective: Spain 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-10-06	Croatia	1 – 2	Spain	L
2026-09-29	Spain	4 – 1	Croatia	L

📈 Recent form

Croatia

Croatia come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Czechia. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Spain.

LCroatia 1-2 SpainUEFA Nations League
LCroatia 0-7 EnglandUEFA Nations League
LSpain 4-1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
WCzechia 1-2 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
WCroatia 2-1 SloveniaFriendlies

Spain

Spain come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Croatia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WCroatia 1-2 SpainUEFA Nations League
WSpain 3-1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
WSpain 4-1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
WEngland 2-3 SpainUEFA Nations League
WPeru 1-3 SpainFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Croatia at 10% to win and Spain at 76%, with the draw at 15%. The bookmaker market makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Spain Win	76%	@ 1.25
Draw	15%	@ 6.50
Croatia Win	9%	@ 10.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Spain or Draw at 1.07 (90% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Spain or Draw	91%	@ 1.07
Croatia or Draw	24%	@ 3.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 0.8-2.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	@ 1.83
BTTS No	50%	@ 1.83

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Croatia vs Spain?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Spain win is the most likely result at 76%.

Who is the favourite for Croatia vs Spain?

Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 76%. It projects an expected 0.8-2.5 scoreline for Croatia vs Spain.

What is the predicted score for Croatia vs Spain?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.80 for Croatia and 2.55 for Spain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Croatia and Spain play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 06 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.