Tue 13 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Villarreal vs Napoli Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Villarreal vs Napoli in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Villarreal face Napoli in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%, implying a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Villarreal vs Napoli with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Villarreal win	45%
Draw	26%
Napoli win	29%
Over 2.5 goals	59%
Both teams to score	62%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 1.70 – 1.35 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	6.4%	4.3%	1.9%	0.7%
1	8.1%	10.9%	7.3%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.8%	9.2%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
3	3.9%	5.2%	3.5%	1.6%	0.5%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Villarreal winDrawNapoli win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Villarreal vs Napoli. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Villarreal win is the most likely result at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 59%. Both teams to score: yes at 62%.

📊 Key numbers

Villarreal 45%Draw 26%Napoli 29%

45%26%29%

45%

Villarreal Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Villarreal

Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Real Madrid.

LReal Madrid 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League

Napoli

Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Frosinone. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

WNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Villarreal

T. BuchananMuscle Injury
N. PepeEye injury

Napoli

Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
F. AnguissaGroin Injury
A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
C. FavasuliThigh Injury
L. MarianucciOff the roster
M. OliveraGroin Injury
A. VergaraCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Villarreal at 45% to win and Napoli at 29%, with the draw at 26%. The bookmaker market makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Villarreal Win	45%	@ 2.10
Napoli Win	29%	@ 3.30
Draw	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.36 (71% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Villarreal or Draw	71%	@ 1.36
Napoli or Draw	55%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	62%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	59%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	41%	@ 2.30
Over 3.5	38%	@ 2.50
Under 1.5	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Villarreal 45%Draw 26%Napoli 29%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Napoli?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Villarreal win is the most likely result at 45%.

Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Napoli?

Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Villarreal vs Napoli.

What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Napoli?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.70 for Villarreal and 1.35 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Villarreal and Napoli play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.