⚽ UEFA Champions League
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: FC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven finished 0-1. PSV Eindhoven won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
FC Porto face PSV Eindhoven in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.0-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is PSV Eindhoven with a +2 start at odds 1.29, with a 90% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (57%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
FC Porto come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- LFC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League
- LReal Betis 3-2 FC PortoUEFA Champions League
- WMarítimo 1-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- WFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Heerenveen. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at ADO Den Haag.
- WFC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League
- LADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- LRB Leipzig 1-0 PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League
- WPSV Eindhoven 2-0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel MecOff the roster
- D. PrpicOff the roster
- V. SousaLeg Injury
- William GomesAnkle Injury
- S. LammersLacking Match Fitness
- A. NagaloInjury
- S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
- R. PepiInjury
- A. PleaSurgery
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
- K. SildilliaSurgery
- P. WannerFoot Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices FC Porto at 36% to win and PSV Eindhoven at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 38% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| FC Porto Win | 36% | 60% | @ 1.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 2.38 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 64% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| FC Porto or Draw | 62% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 57% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 43% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when FC Porto or PSV Eindhoven is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven +2 | 90% | 74% | @ 1.29 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1.75 | 87% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1.5 | 84% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1.25 | 79% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| PSV Eindhoven +1 | 74% | 49% | @ 1.99 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.75 | 69% | 43% | @ 2.23 |
| FC Porto +0.75 | 68% | 86% | 1.11 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.5 | 64% | 38% | @ 2.49 |
| FC Porto +0.5 | 62% | 81% | 1.17 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.25 | 58% | 31% | @ 3.06 |
| FC Porto +0.25 | 56% | 78% | 1.22 |
| PSV Eindhoven 0 | 51% | 23% | @ 4.16 |
| FC Porto 0 | 49% | 77% | 1.24 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 44% | 22% | @ 4.37 |
| FC Porto -0.25 | 42% | 69% | 1.39 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 38% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| FC Porto -0.5 | 36% | 62% | 1.53 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 33% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| FC Porto -0.75 | 31% | 57% | 1.67 |
| FC Porto -1 | 26% | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Porto -1.25 | 21% | 45% | 2.13 |
| FC Porto -1.5 | 16% | 40% | 2.40 |
| FC Porto -1.75 | 13% | 34% | 2.83 |
| FC Porto -2 | 10% | 26% | 3.61 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model's pick is PSV Eindhoven with a +2 start at odds 1.29, with a 90% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.6 scoreline for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for FC Porto and 1.61 for PSV Eindhoven. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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