⚽ UEFA Champions League
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Bayern Munich 2-2 Arsenal
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Arsenal with a +1.25 start at 1.34, landed.
Bayern Munich face Arsenal in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Bayern Munich won 1, Arsenal won 1, 2 drawn. The bookmaker market makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 46%, implying a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Arsenal with a +1.25 start at odds 1.34, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Bayern Munich win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Bayern Munich and Arsenal. Wins shown from Bayern Munich’s perspective: Bayern Munich 1 · 2 drawn · Arsenal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 2 | Arsenal | D |
| 2025-11-26 | Arsenal | 3 – 1 | Bayern Munich | L |
| 2024-04-17 | Bayern Munich | 1 – 0 | Arsenal | W |
| 2024-04-09 | Arsenal | 2 – 2 | Bayern Munich | D |
📈 Recent form
Bayern Munich come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 20 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DBayern Munich 2-2 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- WBayern Munich 6-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- DViking 3-3 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- WBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Arsenal come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lille. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.
- DBayern Munich 2-2 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- WNottingham Forest 0-1 ArsenalPremier League
- WArsenal 3-0 LilleUEFA Champions League
- WArsenal 2-1 LeedsPremier League
- LBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. BuchmannKnee Injury
- J. MusialaMuscle Injury
- M. OliseSuspended (red card)
- J. KimmichPersonal Reasons
- P. HincapieAnkle Injury
- W. SalibaBack Injury
- C. TzolisHamstring Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Bayern Munich at 41% to win and Arsenal at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich Win | 41% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Arsenal Win | 32% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.33 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or Draw | 68% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Arsenal or Draw | 59% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Bayern Munich or Arsenal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +2 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Bayern Munich +1.5 | 86% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Arsenal +1.75 | 84% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Bayern Munich +1.25 | 82% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Arsenal +1.5 | 80% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Bayern Munich +1 | 77% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Arsenal +1.25 | 75% | 71% | @ 1.34 |
| Bayern Munich +0.75 | 72% | – | 1.25 |
| Arsenal +1 | 70% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Bayern Munich +0.5 | 68% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Arsenal +0.75 | 64% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Bayern Munich +0.25 | 61% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Arsenal +0.5 | 59% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
| Bayern Munich 0 | 54% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Arsenal +0.25 | 52% | 47% | @ 2.07 |
| Bayern Munich -0.25 | 48% | 53% | 1.81 |
| Arsenal 0 | 46% | 39% | @ 2.48 |
| Bayern Munich -0.5 | 41% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Arsenal -0.25 | 39% | 33% | @ 2.86 |
| Bayern Munich -0.75 | 36% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Arsenal -0.5 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.22 |
| Bayern Munich -1 | 30% | 33% | 2.88 |
| Bayern Munich -1.25 | 25% | 29% | 3.29 |
| Arsenal -1 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bayern Munich -1.5 | 20% | 26% | 3.55 |
| Arsenal -1.25 | 18% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Bayern Munich -1.75 | 16% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Arsenal -1.5 | 14% | 15% | 6.40 |
| Bayern Munich -2 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Our main pick is Arsenal with a +1.25 start at odds 1.34, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal.
What is the predicted score for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Bayern Munich and 1.35 for Arsenal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Bayern Munich and Arsenal play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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