Sat 24 Oct14:30Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Arouca Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alverca vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alverca face Arouca in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Alverca have 3 wins from their last 5, while Arouca have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alverca vs Arouca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.43 – 1.45 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	8.1%	5.9%	2.9%	1.0%
1	8.0%	11.6%	8.4%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.7%	8.3%	6.0%	2.9%	1.1%
3	2.7%	4.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Alverca winDrawArouca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alverca vs Arouca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Alverca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Alverca 38%Draw 28%Arouca 33%

38%28%33%

38%

Alverca Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Alverca and Arouca. Wins shown from Alverca’s perspective: Alverca 1 · Arouca 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-24	Alverca	2 – 1	Arouca	W
2025-12-14	Arouca	1 – 0	Alverca	L

📈 Recent form

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Famalicão. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to SC Braga.

DTondela 0-0 AlvercaTaça de Portugal
WFamalicão 1-4 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
WNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LAlverca 1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Estrela da Amadora. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DCF Os Belenenses 3-3 AroucaTaça de Portugal
WArouca 1-0 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alverca at 38% to win and Arouca at 33%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alverca Win	38%	45%	@ 2.05
Arouca Win	33%	27%	@ 3.40
Draw	28%	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alverca or Draw at 1.30 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alverca or Draw	66%	73%	@ 1.30
Arouca or Draw	61%	55%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	67%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	55%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 2.5	45%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 3.5	33%	28%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	22%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	42%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Alverca 45%Draw 29%Arouca 27%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alverca vs Arouca?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Arouca?

Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Alverca vs Arouca.

What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Arouca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.43 for Alverca and 1.45 for Arouca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alverca and Arouca play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.