Sat 24 Oct11:30Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Sheffield Utd vs Derby Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sheffield Utd vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sheffield Utd face Derby in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Sheffield Utd have 2 wins from their last 5, while Derby have no wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Sheffield Utd won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sheffield Utd win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.7-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sheffield Utd vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.74 – 1.08 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	6.4%	3.5%	1.3%	0.3%
1	10.4%	11.2%	6.0%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.7%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
3	5.2%	5.7%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.3%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sheffield Utd winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sheffield Utd vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Sheffield Utd win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Sheffield Utd 55%Draw 27%Derby 18%

55%27%18%

55%

Sheffield Utd Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Sheffield Utd and Derby. Wins shown from Sheffield Utd’s perspective: Sheffield Utd 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-02	Derby	1 – 2	Sheffield Utd	W
2025-02-01	Derby	0 – 1	Sheffield Utd	W
2024-09-21	Sheffield Utd	1 – 0	Derby	W

📈 Recent form

Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lincoln. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Portsmouth.

WBristol City 0-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
LPortsmouth 3-2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
WSheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnChampionship
LStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
LFleetwood Town 1-0 Sheffield UtdLeague Cup

Derby

Derby come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Stoke City.

LDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship
DDerby 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sheffield Utd

F. SerikiKnee Injury
J. ShackletonHealth problems

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
E. CashinNot in squad
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
S. LangasInjury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
C. TaylorInjury
J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sheffield Utd at 55% to win and Derby at 18%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Sheffield Utd win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sheffield Utd Win	55%	51%	@ 1.80
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.50
Derby Win	18%	22%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sheffield Utd or Draw at 1.22 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sheffield Utd or Draw	80%	78%	@ 1.22
Derby or Draw	44%	49%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	69%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	54%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	46%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	31%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	23%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	45%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Sheffield Utd 52%Draw 25%Derby 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?

Our model makes a Sheffield Utd win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.1 scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.74 for Sheffield Utd and 1.08 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sheffield Utd and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.