Sat 24 Oct14:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Stoke City vs Bristol City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Stoke City vs Bristol City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Stoke City face Bristol City in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Stoke City have 4 wins from their last 5, while Bristol City have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Stoke City won 2, Bristol City won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bristol City win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Stoke City vs Bristol City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	9.5%	5.9%	2.4%	0.8%
1	10.2%	12.6%	7.8%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.8%	8.4%	5.2%	2.2%	0.7%
3	3.0%	3.7%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Stoke City winDrawBristol City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Bristol City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Bristol City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Stoke City 33%Draw 29%Bristol City 39%

33%29%39%

39%

Bristol City Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Stoke City and Bristol City. Wins shown from Stoke City’s perspective: Stoke City 2 · 1 drawn · Bristol City 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-02	Bristol City	2 – 0	Stoke City	L
2025-02-12	Bristol City	2 – 0	Stoke City	L
2024-10-22	Stoke City	2 – 2	Bristol City	D
2024-05-04	Stoke City	4 – 0	Bristol City	W
2023-09-30	Bristol City	2 – 3	Stoke City	W

📈 Recent form

Stoke City

Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Middlesbrough.

WDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LStoke City 2-3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WBolton 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship

Bristol City

Bristol City come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Crystal Palace. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Sheffield Utd.

LBristol City 0-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
LBristol City 0-1 BlackburnChampionship
DCharlton 1-1 Bristol CityChampionship
WCrystal Palace 0-2 Bristol CityFriendlies Clubs
WBristol City 1-0 WatfordChampionship

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Stoke City at 33% to win and Bristol City at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Bristol City win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bristol City Win	39%	32%	@ 2.90
Stoke City Win	33%	41%	@ 2.25
Draw	29%	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bristol City or Draw at 1.62 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bristol City or Draw	66%	59%	@ 1.62
Stoke City or Draw	60%	68%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	53%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	47%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	48%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Stoke City 41%Draw 28%Bristol City 31%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Bristol City?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Bristol City?

Our model makes a Bristol City win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Stoke City vs Bristol City.

What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Bristol City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Stoke City and 1.24 for Bristol City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Stoke City and Bristol City play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.