Sun 25 Oct16:30Upcoming

⚽ Premier League

Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs Leeds in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sunderland face Leeds in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Sunderland have no wins from their last 5, while Leeds have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sunderland won 1, Leeds won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sunderland win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs Leeds with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.27 – 1.22 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	10.1%	6.2%	2.5%	0.8%
1	10.5%	12.8%	7.8%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.7%	8.2%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	2.8%	3.5%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sunderland winDrawLeeds win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Sunderland win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Sunderland 37%Draw 28%Leeds 34%

37%28%34%

37%

Sunderland Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sunderland and Leeds. Wins shown from Sunderland’s perspective: Sunderland 1 · 2 drawn · Leeds 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-30	Sunderland	0 – 1	Leeds	L
2026-03-03	Leeds	0 – 1	Sunderland	W
2025-12-28	Sunderland	1 – 1	Leeds	D
2025-02-17	Leeds	2 – 1	Sunderland	L
2024-10-04	Sunderland	2 – 2	Leeds	D

📈 Recent form

Sunderland

Sunderland come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Torreense. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Bournemouth.

LBournemouth 2-0 SunderlandPremier League
WTorreense 1-2 SunderlandUEFA Europa League
LSunderland 0-2 BrightonPremier League
LManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League

Leeds

Leeds come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Newcastle. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Arsenal.

DLeeds 1-1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
LArsenal 2-1 LeedsPremier League
DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
WLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
LChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sunderland at 37% to win and Leeds at 34%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Sunderland win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sunderland Win	37%	32%	@ 3.00
Leeds Win	34%	39%	@ 2.45
Draw	28%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sunderland or Draw at 1.53 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sunderland or Draw	64%	61%	@ 1.53
Leeds or Draw	62%	68%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 1.5	71%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 2.5	55%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	45%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	29%	30%	@ 3.20
Over 3.5	24%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	50%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Sunderland 32%Draw 30%Leeds 38%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Leeds?

Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Leeds?

Our model makes a Sunderland win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Sunderland vs Leeds.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Leeds?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Sunderland and 1.22 for Leeds. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sunderland and Leeds play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.