⚽ Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs Benfica Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santa Clara vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Santa Clara face Benfica in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Monday 26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Santa Clara have 3 wins from their last 5, while Benfica have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Benfica won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 0.9-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santa Clara vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santa Clara vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Santa Clara and Benfica. Wins shown from Santa Clara’s perspective: 1 drawn · Benfica 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Santa Clara | 1 – 2 | Benfica | L |
| 2025-09-12 | Benfica | 1 – 1 | Santa Clara | D |
| 2025-02-15 | Santa Clara | 0 – 1 | Benfica | L |
| 2024-09-14 | Benfica | 4 – 1 | Santa Clara | L |
📈 Recent form
Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.
- DMafra 2-2 Santa ClaraTaça de Portugal
- WCasa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Celtic. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.
- WBenfica 4-1 CelticUEFA Europa League
- WBenfica 2-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
- WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santa Clara at 14% to win and Benfica at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 65% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Santa Clara Win | 14% | 10% | @ 9.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.08 (86% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica or Draw | 86% | 90% | @ 1.08 |
| Santa Clara or Draw | 35% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 51% | @ 1.85 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.6 scoreline for Santa Clara vs Benfica.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Benfica?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.89 for Santa Clara and 1.60 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santa Clara and Benfica play?
Kick-off is Monday 26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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