Ararat-Armenia
Celje⚽ UEFA Champions League
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 04 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Result: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje finished 2-1. Ararat-Armenia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at 1.38, landed.
Ararat-Armenia face Celje in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 04 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Ararat-Armenia won 1, Celje won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 2.5-2.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 2.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.38, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (86%), both teams to score points yes (83%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Ararat-Armenia and Celje. Wins shown from Ararat-Armenia’s perspective: Ararat-Armenia 1 · Celje 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Celje | 2 – 0 | Ararat-Armenia | L |
| 2026-08-04 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 – 1 | Celje | W |
📈 Recent form
Ararat-Armenia come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Syunik. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to Sparta Praha.
- WShirak 1-3 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
- LArarat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
- WArarat-Armenia 3-0 SyunikPremier League
- WArarat 0-1 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
- LPyunik Yerevan 2-1 Ararat-ArmeniaPremier League
Celje come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.
- DMura 0-0 Celje1. SNL
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
- LBravo 2-1 Celje1. SNL
- LCelje 0-1 Koper1. SNL
- LBrinje-Grosuplje 4-1 Celje1. SNL
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Ararat-Armenia at 39% to win and Celje at 34%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia Win | 39% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Celje Win | 34% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ararat-Armenia or Draw at 1.48 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia or Draw | 71% | 62% | @ 1.48 |
| Celje or Draw | 52% | 67% | @ 1.36 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-2.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 86% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 70% | @ 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 47% | @ 1.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 3.5 | 30% | 73% | @ 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 53% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 | 5% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 83%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 83% | 53% | @ 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 17% | 47% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ararat-Armenia or Celje is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia +1.75 | 89% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.5 | 87% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1.25 | 83% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Ararat-Armenia +1 | 79% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.75 | 75% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| Celje +1.5 | 74% | – | 1.12 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.5 | 71% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Celje +1.25 | 69% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Ararat-Armenia +0.25 | 65% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Celje +1 | 63% | 80% | 1.19 |
| Ararat-Armenia 0 | 59% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Celje +0.75 | 58% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.25 | 53% | 40% | @ 2.37 |
| Celje +0.5 | 52% | 65% | 1.45 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.5 | 48% | 35% | @ 2.67 |
| Celje +0.25 | 47% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Ararat-Armenia -0.75 | 42% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Celje 0 | 41% | 52% | 1.82 |
| Ararat-Armenia -1 | 37% | 20% | @ 4.66 |
| Celje -0.25 | 35% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Ararat-Armenia -1.25 | 31% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Celje -0.5 | 29% | 38% | 2.45 |
| Celje -0.75 | 25% | 31% | 3.02 |
| Celje -1 | 21% | 23% | 4.05 |
| Celje -1.25 | 17% | 22% | 4.29 |
| Celje -1.5 | 13% | 19% | 4.85 |
| Celje -1.75 | 11% | 14% | 6.60 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
Our model's main pick is Ararat-Armenia Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.38, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.
Who is the favourite for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
Our model makes an Ararat-Armenia win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 2.5-2.3 scoreline for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje.
What is the predicted score for Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-2, based on expected goals of 2.48 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.32 for Celje. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Ararat-Armenia and Celje play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 04 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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