vs
⚽ UEFA Champions League
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Result: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz finished 2-0. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.45, was void (stake returned).
Fenerbahçe face Sturm Graz in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 2.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points no (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Sturm Graz with a +0.75 start at odds 2.82 (+48.5% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 55% to win and Sturm Graz at 20%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz Win | 20% | 8.80 | +79.0% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.85 | +17.9% |
| Fenerbahçe Win | 55% | 1.33 | -26.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sturm Graz or Draw at 3.10 (45% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz or Draw | 45% | 3.10 | +38.4% |
| Fenerbahçe or Draw | 80% | 1.06 | -15.6% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 2.40 | +0.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 1.18 | -0.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 1.55 | -10.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.35 | -15.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 4.75 | -24.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.85 | -7.4% |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.80 | -10.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fenerbahçe or Sturm Graz is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz 0 | 35% | 5.90 | +106.6% |
| Sturm Graz -0.25 | 29% | 6.40 | +86.5% |
| Sturm Graz -0.5 | 23% | 7.00 | +62.9% |
| Sturm Graz +0.25 | 41% | 3.82 | +56.2% |
| Sturm Graz +0.5 | 47% | 3.18 | +48.8% |
| Sturm Graz +0.75 | 53% | 2.82 | +48.5% |
| Sturm Graz +1 | 59% | 2.41 | +41.0% |
| Sturm Graz +1.25 | 64% | 2.06 | +33.2% |
| Sturm Graz +1.5 | 70% | 1.84 | +29.4% |
| Sturm Graz +1.75 | 74% | 1.65 | +22.6% |
| Sturm Graz +2 | 79% | 1.45 | +14.0% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.5 | 77% | 1.08 | -17.1% |
| Fenerbahçe +0.25 | 71% | 1.12 | -20.6% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.25 | 59% | 1.25 | -26.1% |
| Fenerbahçe 0 | 65% | 1.13 | -26.6% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.5 | 53% | 1.33 | -29.3% |
| Fenerbahçe -0.75 | 47% | 1.42 | -33.0% |
| Fenerbahçe -1 | 41% | 1.55 | -35.9% |
| Fenerbahçe -1.25 | 36% | 1.75 | -37.9% |
| Fenerbahçe -2 | 21% | 2.73 | -41.7% |
| Fenerbahçe -1.75 | 26% | 2.23 | -43.2% |
| Fenerbahçe -1.5 | 30% | 1.92 | -43.2% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.45, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Sturm Graz with a +0.75 start at 2.82 (+48.5% value).
Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz.
What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.51 for Fenerbahçe and 0.79 for Sturm Graz. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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