Wed 5 Aug2-0Finished

Sturm Graz

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz finished 2-0. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.45, was void (stake returned).

Fenerbahçe face Sturm Graz in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 2.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sturm Graz Asian Handicap +2.0 @ 1.45

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.51 – 0.79 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	2.9%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
1	9.3%	7.3%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
2	11.6%	9.2%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%
3	9.7%	7.7%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
4	6.1%	4.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Fenerbahçe winDrawSturm Graz win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.45, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points no (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Fenerbahçe 55%Draw 24%Sturm Graz 20%

55%24%20%

55%

Fenerbahçe Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz. Wins shown from Fenerbahçe’s perspective: Fenerbahçe 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-11	Sturm Graz	0 – 1	Fenerbahçe	W
2026-08-05	Fenerbahçe	2 – 0	Sturm Graz	W

📈 Recent form

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at home to Eyüpspor. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Beşiktaş.

WFenerbahçe 8-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
DGaziantep FK 0-0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
LFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Voitsberg. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Red Bull Salzburg.

LRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
WSturm Graz 2-1 Lask LinzBundesliga
WVoitsberg 1-4 Sturm GrazCup
LRapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm GrazBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 55% to win and Sturm Graz at 20%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe Win	55%	72%	@ 1.30
Draw	24%	18%	@ 5.30
Sturm Graz Win	20%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fenerbahçe or Draw at 1.05 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe or Draw	77%	89%	@ 1.05
Sturm Graz or Draw	47%	28%	@ 3.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	80%	@ 1.15
Over 2.5	64%	60%	@ 1.52
Under 3.5	58%	61%	@ 1.50
Over 3.5	42%	39%	@ 2.33
Under 2.5	36%	40%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	16%	20%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	50%	51%	@ 1.78
BTTS Yes	50%	49%	@ 1.89

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fenerbahçe or Sturm Graz is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sturm Graz +2	79%	65%	@ 1.45
Fenerbahçe +0.5	77%	87%	1.08
Sturm Graz +1.75	74%	58%	@ 1.65
Fenerbahçe +0.25	71%	85%	1.12
Sturm Graz +1.5	70%	51%	@ 1.84
Fenerbahçe 0	65%	84%	1.13
Sturm Graz +1.25	64%	46%	@ 2.06
Fenerbahçe -0.25	59%	75%	1.25
Sturm Graz +1	59%	39%	@ 2.41
Fenerbahçe -0.5	53%	71%	1.33
Sturm Graz +0.75	53%	33%	@ 2.82
Fenerbahçe -0.75	47%	67%	1.42
Sturm Graz +0.5	47%	29%	@ 3.18
Fenerbahçe -1	41%	61%	1.55
Sturm Graz +0.25	41%	25%	@ 3.82
Fenerbahçe -1.25	36%	54%	1.75
Sturm Graz 0	35%	16%	@ 5.90
Fenerbahçe -1.5	30%	49%	1.92
Sturm Graz -0.25	29%	15%	@ 6.40
Fenerbahçe -1.75	26%	42%	2.23
Sturm Graz -0.5	23%	13%	@ 7.00
Fenerbahçe -2	21%	35%	2.73

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?

Our model's main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.45, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?

Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz.

What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.51 for Fenerbahçe and 0.79 for Sturm Graz. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 05 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.