⚽ Primeira Liga
Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Result: Alverca 2-2 Estrela da Amadora
Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Alverca face Estrela da Amadora in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Estrela da Amadora with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Alverca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Alverca and Estrela da Amadora. Wins shown from Alverca’s perspective: 3 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Alverca | 2 – 2 | Estrela da Amadora | D |
| 2026-01-31 | Alverca | 1 – 1 | Estrela da Amadora | D |
| 2025-08-25 | Estrela da Amadora | 2 – 2 | Alverca | D |
📈 Recent form
Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Nacional. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to SC Braga.
- WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- WNacional 1-3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- LAlverca 1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- LSporting CP 3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to SC Braga. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.
- LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
- DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
- WNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Alverca at 41% to win and Estrela da Amadora at 27%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca Win | 41% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
| Estrela da Amadora Win | 27% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alverca or Draw at 1.29 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca or Draw | 70% | 71% | @ 1.29 |
| Estrela da Amadora or Draw | 56% | 58% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 75% | @ 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 68% | @ 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 56% | @ 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 44% | @ 2.08 |
| Under 1.5 | 30% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | 50% | @ 1.84 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Alverca or Estrela da Amadora is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca +1.5 | 88% | 85% | 1.07 |
| Alverca +1.25 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.75 | 82% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.5 | 79% | 78% | 1.20 |
| Alverca +1 | 79% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Alverca +0.75 | 74% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1.25 | 73% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Alverca +0.5 | 70% | – | 1.32 |
| Estrela da Amadora +1 | 68% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Alverca +0.25 | 63% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.75 | 62% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Alverca 0 | 57% | 60% | 1.57 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.5 | 56% | 57% | 1.66 |
| Alverca -0.25 | 50% | 51% | 1.91 |
| Estrela da Amadora +0.25 | 50% | 49% | 1.97 |
| Alverca -0.5 | 44% | 43% | 2.17 |
| Estrela da Amadora 0 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Alverca -0.75 | 38% | 37% | 2.59 |
| Estrela da Amadora -0.25 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Alverca -1 | 32% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Alverca -1.25 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| Estrela da Amadora -0.75 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.32 |
| Alverca -1.5 | 21% | 22% | 4.17 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1 | 21% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Alverca -1.75 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1.25 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Estrela da Amadora -1.5 | 12% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora?
Our model's main pick is Estrela da Amadora with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora?
Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Alverca and 1.05 for Estrela da Amadora. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Alverca and Estrela da Amadora play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Lask Linzvs
LiverpoolUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct16:45
Feyenoordvs
ComoUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct16:45
Slovan Bratislavavs
VfB StuttgartUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Shakhtar Donetskvs
AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Manchester Cityvs
Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00
Bodo/Glimtvs
Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.