⚽ Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Friday 14 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Sporting CP face Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Friday 14 August 2026, 19:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Sporting CP won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 80%, projecting a 2.7-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.45

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.66 – 0.78 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%
1	8.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%
2	11.3%	8.8%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	10.1%	7.8%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	6.7%	5.2%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Sporting CP winDrawGuimaraes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Sporting CP win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 80%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.95, 50% model probability, -1.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sporting CP 80%Draw 11%Guimaraes 8%

80%11%

80%

Sporting CP Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

-1.7%

Best value: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sporting CP and Guimaraes. Wins shown from Sporting CP’s perspective: Sporting CP 4 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-04	Sporting CP	5 – 1	Guimaraes	W
2025-12-23	Guimaraes	1 – 4	Sporting CP	W
2025-05-17	Sporting CP	2 – 0	Guimaraes	W
2025-01-03	Guimaraes	4 – 4	Sporting CP	D
2024-04-21	Sporting CP	3 – 0	Guimaraes	W

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sporting CP at 80% to win and Guimaraes at 8%, with the draw at 11%. Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Guimaraes Win	8%	15.00	+23.8%
Sporting CP Win	80%	1.19	-4.3%
Draw	11%	6.00	-32.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting CP or Draw at 1.03 (92% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sporting CP or Draw	92%	1.03	-5.5%
Guimaraes or Draw	20%	4.33	-15.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.7-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	86%	1.14	-2.3%
Over 2.5	67%	1.45	-3.2%
Over 3.5	45%	2.10	-5.5%
Under 3.5	55%	1.70	-6.5%
Under 2.5	33%	2.70	-10.2%
Under 1.5	14%	5.50	-21.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	50%	1.95	-1.7%
BTTS No	50%	1.75	-13.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?

Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 80%. It projects an expected 2.7-0.8 scoreline for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes.

What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.66 for Sporting CP and 0.78 for Guimaraes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sporting CP and Guimaraes play?

Kick-off is Friday 14 August 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.