Sun 16 Aug2-2Finished

⚽ Championship

Burnley vs West Ham Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs West Ham in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Result: Burnley 2-2 West Ham

Burnley vs West Ham finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Burnley face West Ham in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, West Ham won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.5-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs West Ham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

πŸ”₯ Best Bet

Model pick
Burnley +1.25 @ 1.27
92%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 0.58 goals)
0 1 2 3 4
0 12.5% 7.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1 18.7% 10.9% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 14.1% 8.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1%
3 7.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Projected score: 1-0
Burnley winDrawWest Ham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burnley vs West Ham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 92% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (66%).

πŸ“Š Key numbers

Burnley 54%Draw 39%West Ham 7%
54%39%
54%
Burnley Win
66%
Under 2.5 goals
66%
BTTS no

πŸ” Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Burnley and West Ham. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 2 drawn · West Ham 3.

Date Home Score Away Result
2026-08-16 Burnley 2 – 2 West Ham D
2026-02-07 Burnley 0 – 2 West Ham L
2025-11-08 West Ham 3 – 2 Burnley L
2024-03-10 West Ham 2 – 2 Burnley D
2023-11-25 Burnley 1 – 2 West Ham L

πŸ“ˆ Recent form

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

  • DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
  • LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
  • DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
  • LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
  • DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
West Ham

West Ham come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at home to Wrexham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Fulham.

  • DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
  • LWest Ham 2-3 FulhamLeague Cup
  • WWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
  • WBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
  • WWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship

πŸ₯ Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Burnley
  • E. AgyeiInjury
  • J. BanelInjury
  • A. BarnesInjury
  • J. BeyerHamstring Injury
  • J. CullenKnee Injury
West Ham
  • K. LamadridKnee Injury
  • T. SoucekAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burnley at 54% to win and West Ham at 7%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Burnley Win 54% 32% @ 2.88
Draw 39% 27% @ 3.50
West Ham Win 7% 41% @ 2.28

πŸ”€ Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.58 (84% model).

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Burnley or Draw 84% 59% @ 1.58
West Ham or Draw 37% 68% @ 1.38

πŸ“ˆ Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Under 3.5 84% 66% @ 1.41
Under 2.5 66% 46% @ 2.06
Over 1.5 62% 77% @ 1.21
Under 1.5 38% 23% @ 4.10
Over 2.5 34% 54% @ 1.72
Over 3.5 16% 34% @ 2.75

πŸ₯… Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
BTTS No 66% 41% @ 2.25
BTTS Yes 34% 59% @ 1.57

βš–οΈ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or West Ham is a clear favourite.

Selection Model % Market % Odds
Burnley +1.75 96% 82% @ 1.16
Burnley +1.5 95% 77% @ 1.21
Burnley +1.25 92% 74% @ 1.27
Burnley +1 90% 72% @ 1.33
Burnley +0.75 87% 63% @ 1.51
Burnley +0.5 84% 57% @ 1.64
Burnley +0.25 79% 50% @ 1.94
Burnley 0 74% 42% @ 2.27
Burnley -0.25 68% 35% @ 2.72
West Ham +1.5 62% – 1.11
Burnley -0.75 57% 24% @ 3.88
West Ham +1.25 56% 84% 1.12
Burnley -1 51% 17% @ 5.75
West Ham +1 49% 83% 1.14
Burnley -1.25 44% 16% @ 6.00
West Ham +0.75 43% 76% 1.26
West Ham +0.5 37% – 1.37
West Ham +0.25 32% 65% 1.47
West Ham 0 26% 58% 1.64
West Ham -0.25 21% 50% 1.93
West Ham -0.5 16% 43% 2.21
West Ham -0.75 13% 37% 2.57
West Ham -1 10% 28% 3.35
West Ham -1.25 8% 26% 3.69
West Ham -1.5 5% 23% 4.00
West Ham -1.75 4% 18% 5.25

πŸ“ˆ How the market moved

23%34%46%08/1008/1108/1208/1308/1408/1508/16

Burnley 32%Draw 27%West Ham 42%
Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs West Ham?

Our model's main pick is Burnley with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 92% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Burnley vs West Ham?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs West Ham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Burnley and 0.58 for West Ham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burnley and West Ham play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.

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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.