⚽ UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

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Result: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe finished 0-1. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.37, landed.

Sturm Graz face Fenerbahçe in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Sturm Graz have 2 wins from their last 3, while Fenerbahçe have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sturm Graz Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.37

85%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.96 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	13.5%	8.9%	3.9%	1.3%
1	9.9%	13.0%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	4.8%	6.2%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.5%	2.0%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Sturm Graz winDrawFenerbahçe win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 85%. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Sturm Graz 0 at odds 2.83 (+52.1% model value).

Best value

Sturm Graz 0 at odds 2.83, 54% model probability, +52.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Sturm Graz 28%Draw 30%Fenerbahçe 43%

28%30%43%

43%

Fenerbahçe Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

+52.1%

Best value: Sturm Graz 0

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe. Wins shown from Sturm Graz’s perspective: 1 drawn · Fenerbahçe 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-05	Fenerbahçe	2 – 0	Sturm Graz	L
2017-08-03	Fenerbahçe	1 – 1	Sturm Graz	D
2017-07-27	Sturm Graz	1 – 2	Fenerbahçe	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sturm Graz at 28% to win and Fenerbahçe at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	3.85	+13.5%
Sturm Graz Win	28%	3.45	-3.6%
Fenerbahçe Win	43%	1.93	-17.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.83 (57% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sturm Graz or Draw	57%	1.83	+5.1%
Fenerbahçe or Draw	72%	1.30	-6.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	34%	4.20	+41.9%
Under 2.5	60%	2.10	+26.8%
Under 3.5	80%	1.42	+14.4%
Over 1.5	66%	1.22	-19.2%
Over 2.5	40%	1.70	-32.7%
Over 3.5	20%	2.80	-45.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	60%	2.10	+25.7%
BTTS Yes	40%	1.62	-35.0%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sturm Graz or Fenerbahçe is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sturm Graz -1	30%	6.60	+101.5%
Sturm Graz -1.25	25%	7.00	+76.4%
Sturm Graz -0.75	36%	4.50	+61.4%
Sturm Graz -0.25	48%	3.32	+57.8%
Sturm Graz 0	54%	2.83	+52.1%
Sturm Graz -0.5	41%	3.67	+51.0%
Sturm Graz -1.5	20%	7.00	+39.2%
Sturm Graz +0.25	60%	2.25	+35.7%
Sturm Graz +0.5	66%	1.93	+28.6%
Sturm Graz +0.75	71%	1.74	+23.6%
Sturm Graz +1.5	85%	1.37	+16.9%
Sturm Graz +1	76%	1.53	+16.2%
Sturm Graz +1.25	81%	1.44	+16.1%
Sturm Graz +1.75	88%	1.27	+11.5%
Sturm Graz +2	90%	1.15	+3.7%
Fenerbahçe +1.5	80%	1.10	-11.9%
Fenerbahçe +1.25	75%	1.10	-17.7%
Fenerbahçe +1	70%	1.11	-22.9%
Fenerbahçe +0.75	64%	1.19	-23.7%
Fenerbahçe +0.5	59%	1.26	-25.6%
Fenerbahçe +0.25	52%	1.32	-30.7%
Fenerbahçe 0	46%	1.42	-34.7%
Fenerbahçe -0.25	40%	1.63	-35.1%
Fenerbahçe -0.5	34%	1.83	-38.6%
Fenerbahçe -0.75	29%	2.08	-40.0%
Fenerbahçe -1	24%	2.46	-40.7%
Fenerbahçe -2	10%	5.50	-45.9%
Fenerbahçe -1.25	19%	2.73	-47.3%
Fenerbahçe -1.5	15%	3.04	-55.5%
Fenerbahçe -1.75	12%	3.63	-55.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, with 85% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Sturm Graz 0 at 2.83 (+52.1% value).

Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.96 for Sturm Graz and 1.31 for Fenerbahçe. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.