Sturm Graz

Tue 11 Aug0-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe finished 0-1. Fenerbahçe won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.37, landed.

Sturm Graz face Fenerbahçe in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Fenerbahçe won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sturm Graz Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.37

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.96 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	13.5%	8.9%	3.9%	1.3%
1	9.9%	13.0%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	4.8%	6.2%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.5%	2.0%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Sturm Graz winDrawFenerbahçe win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Sturm Graz 28%Draw 30%Fenerbahçe 43%

28%30%43%

43%

Fenerbahçe Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe. Wins shown from Sturm Graz’s perspective: Fenerbahçe 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-11	Sturm Graz	0 – 1	Fenerbahçe	L
2026-08-05	Fenerbahçe	2 – 0	Sturm Graz	L

📈 Recent form

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Voitsberg. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Red Bull Salzburg.

LRed Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
DSturm Graz 0-0 RennesUEFA Europa League
WSturm Graz 2-1 Lask LinzBundesliga
WVoitsberg 1-4 Sturm GrazCup
LRapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at home to Eyüpspor. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Beşiktaş.

WFenerbahçe 8-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
DGaziantep FK 0-0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
LFenerbahçe 1-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sturm Graz at 28% to win and Fenerbahçe at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fenerbahçe Win	43%	53%	@ 1.79
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.80
Sturm Graz Win	28%	22%	@ 4.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sturm Graz or Draw at 1.93 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sturm Graz or Draw	66%	47%	@ 1.93
Fenerbahçe or Draw	59%	78%	@ 1.18

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	65%	@ 1.41
Over 1.5	66%	76%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	60%	45%	@ 2.04
Over 2.5	40%	55%	@ 1.66
Under 1.5	34%	24%	@ 3.85
Over 3.5	20%	35%	@ 2.63

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	60%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	40%	56%	@ 1.63

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sturm Graz or Fenerbahçe is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Sturm Graz +2	90%	83%	@ 1.15
Sturm Graz +1.75	88%	74%	@ 1.27
Sturm Graz +1.5	85%	69%	@ 1.37
Sturm Graz +1.25	81%	65%	@ 1.44
Fenerbahçe +1.5	80%	86%	1.10
Sturm Graz +1	76%	62%	@ 1.53
Fenerbahçe +1.25	75%	86%	1.10
Sturm Graz +0.75	71%	55%	@ 1.74
Fenerbahçe +1	70%	86%	1.11
Sturm Graz +0.5	66%	49%	@ 1.93
Fenerbahçe +0.75	64%	79%	1.19
Sturm Graz +0.25	60%	42%	@ 2.25
Fenerbahçe +0.5	59%	74%	1.26
Sturm Graz 0	54%	33%	@ 2.83
Fenerbahçe +0.25	52%	72%	1.32
Sturm Graz -0.25	48%	28%	@ 3.32
Fenerbahçe 0	46%	67%	1.42
Sturm Graz -0.5	41%	26%	@ 3.67
Fenerbahçe -0.25	40%	58%	1.63
Sturm Graz -0.75	36%	21%	@ 4.50
Fenerbahçe -0.5	34%	51%	1.83
Sturm Graz -1	30%	14%	@ 6.60
Fenerbahçe -0.75	29%	45%	2.08
Sturm Graz -1.25	25%	14%	@ 7.00
Fenerbahçe -1	24%	38%	2.46
Sturm Graz -1.5	20%	14%	@ 7.00
Fenerbahçe -1.25	19%	35%	2.73
Fenerbahçe -1.5	15%	31%	3.04
Fenerbahçe -1.75	12%	26%	3.63
Fenerbahçe -2	10%	17%	5.50

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

Our model's main pick is Sturm Graz Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.37, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.96 for Sturm Graz and 1.31 for Fenerbahçe. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.