⚽ Segunda División

AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas in the Segunda División. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AD Ceuta FC face Las Palmas in the Segunda División, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AD Ceuta FC win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.28 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.0%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
1	9.7%	12.4%	7.9%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.5%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.0%	3.9%	2.5%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AD Ceuta FC winDrawLas Palmas win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates an AD Ceuta FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is AD Ceuta FC or Draw at odds 1.62 (+5.9% model value).

Best value

AD Ceuta FC or Draw at odds 1.62, 65% model probability, +5.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

AD Ceuta FC 39%Draw 27%Las Palmas 34%

39%27%34%

39%

AD Ceuta FC Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+5.9%

Best value: AD Ceuta FC or Draw

📈 Recent form

AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Cadiz. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at FC Andorra.

LFC Andorra 5-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
WAD Ceuta FC 2-1 MalagaFriendlies Clubs
WCadiz 1-3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
LSevilla 2-1 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
WAD Ceuta FC 1-0 AlbaceteSegunda División

Las Palmas

Las Palmas come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Albacete. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to NEOM.

WLas Palmas 2-1 AlbaceteSegunda División
LLas Palmas 0-1 NEOMFriendlies Clubs
LLas Palmas 1-2 Al-Ittihad FCFriendlies Clubs
LOrlando Pirates 1-0 Las PalmasFriendlies Clubs
DMalaga 1-1 Las PalmasSegunda División

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AD Ceuta FC at 39% to win and Las Palmas at 34%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an AD Ceuta FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AD Ceuta FC Win	39%	@ 3.40	+31.6%
Draw	27%	@ 3.05	-18.0%
Las Palmas Win	34%	@ 2.22	-23.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AD Ceuta FC or Draw at 1.62 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AD Ceuta FC or Draw	65%	@ 1.62	+5.9%
Las Palmas or Draw	61%	@ 1.30	-20.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.33	-1.3%
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.95	-3.7%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.30	-5.7%
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.83	-7.4%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.35	-7.9%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.30	-14.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.70	-8.1%
BTTS No	46%	@ 2.00	-8.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	39%
Dixon-Coles	Home	39%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.34 for the home side, 1.25 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is AD Ceuta FC or Draw at 1.62 (+5.9% value).

Who is the favourite for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?

Our model makes an AD Ceuta FC win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas.

What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.28 for Las Palmas. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AD Ceuta FC and Las Palmas play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.