Almeria

Mon 17 Aug3-0Finished

Eldense

⚽ Segunda División

Almeria vs Eldense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Almeria vs Eldense in the Segunda División. Kick-off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Almeria 3-0 Eldense

Almeria vs Eldense finished 3-0. Almeria won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Almeria face Eldense in the Segunda División, kicking off Monday 17 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Almeria vs Eldense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Eldense +2 @ 1.44

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.22 – 1.41 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	3.7%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%
1	5.9%	8.3%	5.9%	2.8%	1.0%
2	6.5%	9.2%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%
3	4.8%	6.8%	4.8%	2.3%	0.8%
4	2.7%	3.8%	2.7%	1.3%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Almeria winDrawEldense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Almeria vs Eldense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Eldense with a +2 start at odds 1.44, with a 79% model probability. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

70%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Almeria

Almeria come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Eldense. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Sabadell.

WCordoba 0-2 AlmeriaSegunda División
WAlmeria 3-2 CadizSegunda División
LSabadell 1-0 AlmeriaSegunda División
LTenerife 1-0 AlmeriaSegunda División
WAlmeria 3-0 EldenseSegunda División

Eldense

Eldense come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Sporting Gijon. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Eibar.

LEldense 1-2 EibarSegunda División
WSporting Gijon 0-1 EldenseSegunda División
DEldense 0-0 MallorcaSegunda División
LLeganes 1-0 EldenseSegunda División
DEldense 2-2 CadizSegunda División

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Almeria or Draw at 1.05 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Almeria or Draw	78%	89%	@ 1.05
Eldense or Draw	46%	28%	@ 3.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	88%	78%	@ 1.18
Over 2.5	70%	58%	@ 1.58
Under 3.5	51%	62%	@ 1.47
Over 3.5	49%	38%	@ 2.45
Under 2.5	30%	42%	@ 2.18
Under 1.5	12%	22%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	46%	@ 1.98
BTTS No	33%	54%	@ 1.68

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Almeria or Eldense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Eldense +2	79%	66%	1.44
Eldense +1.75	74%	58%	1.63
Eldense +1.5	70%	51%	1.83
Almeria 0	66%	86%	1.11
Eldense +1.25	64%	46%	2.08
Almeria -0.25	60%	–	1.22
Eldense +1	58%	37%	2.54
Almeria -0.5	54%	–	1.31
Eldense +0.75	52%	32%	2.92
Almeria -0.75	48%	68%	1.40
Almeria -1	42%	63%	1.51
Almeria -1.25	36%	54%	1.75
Eldense 0	34%	14%	6.60
Almeria -1.5	30%	49%	1.94
Almeria -1.75	26%	42%	2.29
Almeria -2	21%	34%	2.81

📈 How the market moved

Almeria 71%Draw 18%Eldense 10%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Almeria vs Eldense?

Our model's main pick is Eldense with a +2 start at odds 1.44, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Eldense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.22 for Almeria and 1.41 for Eldense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Almeria and Eldense play?

Kick-off is Monday 17 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.