Arminia Bielefeld

Fri 4 Sep2-2Finished

FC St. Pauli

⚽ 2. Bundesliga

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Arminia Bielefeld face FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Arminia Bielefeld +0.75 @ 1.30

89%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.31 – 0.92 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	3.6%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
1	9.1%	8.4%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%
2	10.6%	9.7%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	8.1%	7.5%	3.4%	1.1%	0.2%
4	4.7%	4.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Arminia Bielefeld winDrawFC St. Pauli win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Arminia Bielefeld with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 89% model probability. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

63%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Arminia Bielefeld

Arminia Bielefeld come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at SV Darmstadt 98.

DArminia Bielefeld 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
LSV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
DArminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
L1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
DSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-2 Arminia BielefeldDFB Pokal

FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to VfL Wolfsburg. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

DEnergie Cottbus 1-1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
WFC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
DArminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
LFC St. Pauli 1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
LRot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. PauliDFB Pokal

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arminia Bielefeld or Draw at 1.32 (87% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arminia Bielefeld or Draw	87%	69%	@ 1.32
FC St. Pauli or Draw	32%	57%	@ 1.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	79%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	63%	56%	@ 1.62
Under 3.5	60%	65%	@ 1.43
Over 3.5	40%	35%	@ 2.60
Under 2.5	37%	44%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	17%	21%	@ 4.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	61%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	46%	39%	@ 2.30

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Arminia Bielefeld or FC St. Pauli is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arminia Bielefeld +1.5	96%	83%	1.14
Arminia Bielefeld +1.25	94%	82%	1.16
Arminia Bielefeld +1	92%	80%	1.18
Arminia Bielefeld +0.75	89%	73%	1.30
Arminia Bielefeld +0.5	87%	68%	1.39
Arminia Bielefeld +0.25	82%	63%	1.51
Arminia Bielefeld 0	78%	57%	1.67
Arminia Bielefeld -0.25	73%	48%	1.99
Arminia Bielefeld -0.5	68%	43%	2.20
Arminia Bielefeld -0.75	62%	36%	2.65
FC St. Pauli +1.75	62%	83%	1.15
FC St. Pauli +1.5	56%	76%	1.22
Arminia Bielefeld -1	56%	28%	3.37
FC St. Pauli +1.25	50%	75%	1.27
Arminia Bielefeld -1.25	50%	25%	3.78
FC St. Pauli +1	44%	72%	1.32
Arminia Bielefeld -1.5	44%	24%	3.95
Arminia Bielefeld -1.75	38%	17%	5.50
FC St. Pauli +0.75	38%	64%	1.49
FC St. Pauli +0.5	32%	57%	1.64
FC St. Pauli +0.25	27%	52%	1.85
FC St. Pauli 0	22%	43%	2.18
FC St. Pauli -0.25	18%	37%	2.56
FC St. Pauli -0.5	13%	32%	2.89
FC St. Pauli -0.75	11%	27%	3.58
FC St. Pauli -1	8%	20%	4.65
FC St. Pauli -1.25	6%	18%	5.25
FC St. Pauli -1.5	4%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Arminia Bielefeld 42%Draw 26%FC St. Pauli 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?

Our model's main pick is Arminia Bielefeld with a +0.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 89% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

What is the predicted score for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.31 for Arminia Bielefeld and 0.92 for FC St. Pauli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.