⚽ Primeira Liga
Arouca vs Santa Clara Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara
Arouca vs Santa Clara finished 1-2. Santa Clara won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.38, landed.
Arouca face Santa Clara in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 3 wins from their last 5, while Santa Clara have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Santa Clara with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (50%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Arouca and Santa Clara. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: 2 drawn · Santa Clara 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Arouca | 1 – 2 | Santa Clara | L |
| 2026-07-25 | Santa Clara | 3 – 0 | Arouca | L |
| 2026-05-02 | Arouca | 2 – 2 | Santa Clara | D |
| 2025-12-21 | Santa Clara | 0 – 0 | Arouca | D |
| 2025-04-26 | Santa Clara | 2 – 0 | Arouca | L |
📈 Recent form
Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.
- DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave.
- DSanta Clara 0-0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Arouca at 36% to win and Santa Clara at 33%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca Win | 36% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| Santa Clara Win | 33% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.38 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca or Draw | 65% | 66% | @ 1.38 |
| Santa Clara or Draw | 62% | 64% | @ 1.42 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 79% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | @ 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 60% | @ 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 40% | @ 2.28 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 33% | @ 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 21% | @ 4.30 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 48% | @ 1.91 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 52% | @ 1.77 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Arouca or Santa Clara is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca +1.5 | 85% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Santa Clara +1.5 | 83% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Arouca +1.25 | 80% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Santa Clara +1.25 | 77% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Arouca +1 | 75% | – | 1.16 |
| Santa Clara +1 | 72% | – | 1.20 |
| Arouca +0.75 | 70% | – | 1.29 |
| Santa Clara +0.75 | 67% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Arouca +0.5 | 65% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Santa Clara +0.5 | 62% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Arouca +0.25 | 58% | 62% | 1.55 |
| Santa Clara +0.25 | 55% | 57% | 1.69 |
| Arouca 0 | 52% | 53% | 1.82 |
| Santa Clara 0 | 48% | 47% | 2.06 |
| Arouca -0.25 | 45% | 43% | 2.20 |
| Santa Clara -0.25 | 42% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
| Arouca -0.5 | 38% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Santa Clara -0.5 | 35% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Arouca -0.75 | 33% | 30% | @ 3.22 |
| Arouca -1.25 | 23% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Santa Clara -1.25 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Arouca -1.5 | 17% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Santa Clara -1.5 | 15% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Arouca and 1.23 for Santa Clara. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Arouca and Santa Clara play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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