⚽ Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arouca vs Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Arouca face Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Arouca have 3 wins from their last 5, while Santa Clara have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 1, Santa Clara won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arouca vs Santa Clara with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.38

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.22 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	9.5%	5.8%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.4%	12.7%	7.7%	3.1%	1.0%
2	6.9%	8.4%	5.1%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.1%	3.7%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Arouca winDrawSanta Clara win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.38, 72% model probability, -0.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Arouca 37%Draw 31%Santa Clara 32%

37%31%32%

37%

Arouca Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

-0.3%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Arouca and Santa Clara. Wins shown from Arouca’s perspective: Arouca 1 · 2 drawn · Santa Clara 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-25	Santa Clara	3 – 0	Arouca	L
2026-05-02	Arouca	2 – 2	Santa Clara	D
2025-12-21	Santa Clara	0 – 0	Arouca	D
2025-04-26	Santa Clara	2 – 0	Arouca	L
2024-12-15	Arouca	1 – 0	Santa Clara	W

📈 Recent form

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Moreirense. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at FC Porto.

DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WGuimaraes 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Santa Clara

Santa Clara come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DAlverca 1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WSanta Clara 1-0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
WAcademico Viseu 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DSanta Clara 2-2 NacionalPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Arouca at 37% to win and Santa Clara at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Arouca Win	37%	@ 2.63	-2.7%
Draw	31%	@ 3.10	-4.6%
Santa Clara Win	32%	@ 2.75	-11.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.38 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Arouca or Draw	66%	@ 1.38	-9.5%
Santa Clara or Draw	61%	@ 1.42	-13.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	25%	@ 4.30	+8.9%
Over 2.5	47%	@ 2.28	+6.9%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.38	-0.3%
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.17	-12.6%
Under 2.5	53%	@ 1.55	-17.7%
Under 1.5	28%	@ 2.75	-23.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	52%	@ 1.91	-1.4%
BTTS No	48%	@ 1.77	-14.3%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara.

What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Arouca and 1.22 for Santa Clara. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Arouca and Santa Clara play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.