⚽ Premier League
Arsenal vs Chelsea Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Arsenal vs Chelsea in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Result: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
Arsenal vs Chelsea finished 2-1. Arsenal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Arsenal face Chelsea in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Arsenal have 5 wins from their last 5, while Chelsea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Arsenal won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 2.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Arsenal vs Chelsea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Arsenal 0 at odds 1.27, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arsenal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Arsenal and Chelsea. Wins shown from Arsenal’s perspective: Arsenal 3 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal | 2 – 1 | Chelsea | W |
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal | 2 – 1 | Chelsea | W |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea | 1 – 1 | Arsenal | D |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal | 1 – 0 | Chelsea | W |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea | 1 – 1 | Arsenal | D |
📈 Recent form
Arsenal come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Ipswich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.
- LBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
- WIpswich 2-4 ArsenalLeague Cup
- WSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
- WNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- WArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
Chelsea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at home to Leeds. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brentford.
- LBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
- DChelsea 2-2 Hull CityPremier League
- WChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
- LArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
- WChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. MosqueraMuscle Injury
- W. SalibaBack Injury
- J. TimberAnkle Injury
- M. CaicedoInjury
- J. HendersonWrist Injury
- M. PalestraInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Arsenal at 65% to win and Chelsea at 15%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | 65% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
| Chelsea Win | 15% | 19% | @ 5.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arsenal or Draw at 1.16 (85% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal or Draw | 85% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Chelsea or Draw | 35% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 53% | @ 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 47% | @ 1.98 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Arsenal or Chelsea is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0.75 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Arsenal +0.5 | 85% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Arsenal +0.25 | 80% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Arsenal 0 | 75% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Arsenal -0.25 | 70% | 65% | @ 1.47 |
| Chelsea +2 | 70% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Chelsea +1.75 | 65% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Arsenal -0.5 | 65% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Chelsea +1.5 | 60% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Arsenal -0.75 | 59% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Chelsea +1.25 | 54% | 61% | 1.56 |
| Arsenal -1 | 52% | 45% | @ 2.15 |
| Chelsea +1 | 48% | 55% | 1.72 |
| Arsenal -1.25 | 46% | 39% | @ 2.45 |
| Chelsea +0.75 | 41% | 48% | 2.01 |
| Arsenal -1.5 | 40% | 35% | @ 2.75 |
| Arsenal -1.75 | 35% | 28% | @ 3.38 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 35% | 43% | 2.24 |
| Arsenal -2 | 30% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Chelsea +0.25 | 30% | 35% | 2.73 |
| Chelsea 0 | 25% | 25% | 3.80 |
| Chelsea -0.25 | 20% | 22% | 4.32 |
| Chelsea -0.5 | 15% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Chelsea -0.75 | 12% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Our model's main pick is Arsenal 0 at odds 1.27, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline for Arsenal vs Chelsea.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.04 for Arsenal and 1.00 for Chelsea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Arsenal and Chelsea play?
Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.