⚽ Premier League

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Aston Villa face Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Aston Villa have 0 wins from their last 3, while Nottingham Forest have 0 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 3, Nottingham Forest won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

81%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 1.37 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	6.3%	4.3%	2.0%	0.7%
1	7.9%	10.8%	7.4%	3.4%	1.2%
2	6.7%	9.2%	6.3%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.8%	5.2%	3.6%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Aston Villa winDrawNottingham Forest win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates an Aston Villa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.91 (+13.5% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.91, 59% model probability, +13.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Aston Villa 48%Draw 25%Nottingham Forest 27%

48%25%27%

48%

Aston Villa Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+13.5%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Wins shown from Aston Villa’s perspective: Aston Villa 3 · 1 drawn · Nottingham Forest 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-07	Aston Villa	4 – 0	Nottingham Forest	W
2026-04-30	Nottingham Forest	1 – 0	Aston Villa	L
2026-04-12	Nottingham Forest	1 – 1	Aston Villa	D
2026-01-03	Aston Villa	3 – 1	Nottingham Forest	W
2025-04-05	Aston Villa	2 – 1	Nottingham Forest	W

📈 Recent form

Aston Villa

Aston Villa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Club Brugge KV. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

WClub Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
DHull City 0-0 Aston VillaPremier League
LAston Villa 0-1 ArsenalPremier League
LBrighton 4-0 Aston VillaPremier League
LBorussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Stade Brestois 29. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Leeds.

DNottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamPremier League
DLiverpool 2-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
LNottingham Forest 0-2 LeedsLeague Cup
LNottingham Forest 0-1 LeedsPremier League
WNottingham Forest 2-0 Stade Brestois 29Friendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Aston Villa

L. GoretzkaKnee Injury
Joao GomesSuspended (red card)
B. MadjoAnkle Injury
A. OnanaKnee Injury
J. ManzambiKnee Injury

Nottingham Forest

N. SavonaKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aston Villa at 48% to win and Nottingham Forest at 27%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aston Villa Win	48%	@ 2.20	+5.0%
Nottingham Forest Win	27%	@ 3.25	-11.5%
Draw	25%	@ 3.40	-14.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aston Villa or Draw at 1.33 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Aston Villa or Draw	73%	@ 1.33	-2.9%
Nottingham Forest or Draw	52%	@ 1.67	-12.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	37%	@ 3.40	+26.0%
Over 2.5	59%	@ 1.91	+13.5%
Over 1.5	81%	@ 1.30	+5.6%
Under 3.5	63%	@ 1.33	-16.3%
Under 2.5	41%	@ 1.91	-22.5%
Under 1.5	19%	@ 3.50	-34.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.75	+7.0%
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.00	-22.2%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.91 (+13.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Aston Villa and 1.37 for Nottingham Forest. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.