⚽ Premier League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest finished 1-2. Nottingham Forest won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, landed.
Aston Villa face Nottingham Forest in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Aston Villa have no wins from their last 3, while Nottingham Forest have no wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 2, Nottingham Forest won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.7-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Aston Villa win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Wins shown from Aston Villa’s perspective: Aston Villa 2 · 1 drawn · Nottingham Forest 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Aston Villa | 1 – 2 | Nottingham Forest | L |
| 2026-05-07 | Aston Villa | 4 – 0 | Nottingham Forest | W |
| 2026-04-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 0 | Aston Villa | L |
| 2026-04-12 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 1 | Aston Villa | D |
| 2026-01-03 | Aston Villa | 3 – 1 | Nottingham Forest | W |
📈 Recent form
Aston Villa come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Coventry. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.
- WTottenham 2-3 Aston VillaPremier League
- WCoventry 1-3 Aston VillaLeague Cup
- LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- WClub Brugge KV 2-3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League
- DHull City 0-0 Aston VillaPremier League
Nottingham Forest come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Coventry.
- LNottingham Forest 0-1 CoventryPremier League
- WAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- DNottingham Forest 0-0 TottenhamPremier League
- DLiverpool 2-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- LNottingham Forest 0-2 LeedsLeague Cup
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. CashMuscle Injury
- L. GoretzkaKnee Injury
- Joao GomesSuspended (red card)
- B. MadjoAnkle Injury
- A. OnanaKnee Injury
- N. SavonaKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Aston Villa at 48% to win and Nottingham Forest at 27%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa Win | 48% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Nottingham Forest Win | 27% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Aston Villa or Draw at 1.33 (73% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa or Draw | 73% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Nottingham Forest or Draw | 52% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 39% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1.5 | 90% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Aston Villa +1.25 | 85% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Nottingham Forest +2 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Aston Villa +1 | 81% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Nottingham Forest +1.75 | 80% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 77% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Nottingham Forest +1.5 | 76% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Aston Villa +0.5 | 73% | 70% | 1.37 |
| Nottingham Forest +1.25 | 70% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 67% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Nottingham Forest +1 | 64% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Aston Villa 0 | 60% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.75 | 58% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Aston Villa -0.25 | 54% | 49% | @ 1.96 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.5 | 52% | 58% | 1.67 |
| Aston Villa -0.5 | 48% | 42% | @ 2.26 |
| Nottingham Forest +0.25 | 46% | 51% | 1.91 |
| Aston Villa -0.75 | 42% | 36% | @ 2.67 |
| Nottingham Forest 0 | 40% | 41% | 2.33 |
| Aston Villa -1 | 36% | 27% | @ 3.52 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.25 | 33% | 35% | 2.75 |
| Aston Villa -1.25 | 30% | 24% | @ 3.93 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.5 | 27% | 30% | 3.13 |
| Aston Villa -1.5 | 24% | 24% | 3.99 |
| Nottingham Forest -0.75 | 23% | 24% | 3.96 |
| Aston Villa -1.75 | 20% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Nottingham Forest -1 | 19% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Aston Villa -2 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Nottingham Forest -1.25 | 15% | 15% | 6.40 |
| Nottingham Forest -1.5 | 10% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model makes an Aston Villa win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.4 scoreline for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Aston Villa and 1.37 for Nottingham Forest. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
VfL Wolfsburgvs
1. FC Heidenheim2. BundesligaSat 17 Oct11:00
Evertonvs
ChelseaPremier LeagueSat 17 Oct11:30
Nantesvs
DunkerqueLigue 2Sat 17 Oct12:00
Espanyolvs
Atletico MadridLa LigaEspanyol Asian Handicap +1.75@ 1.30Sat 17 Oct12:00
Veneziavs
NapoliSerie ASat 17 Oct13:00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.vs
GalatasaraySüper LigSat 17 Oct13:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.