Sun 13 Sep3-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Benfica vs Gil Vicente Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Benfica vs Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Benfica 3-1 Gil Vicente

Benfica vs Gil Vicente finished 3-1. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.61, did not land.

Benfica face Gil Vicente in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Benfica have 3 wins from their last 4, while Gil Vicente have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Benfica won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 80%, projecting a 2.4-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Benfica vs Gil Vicente with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Benfica -1.25 @ 1.30

64%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.35 – 0.71 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%	0.0%
1	11.0%	7.8%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%
2	12.9%	9.2%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
3	10.1%	7.2%	2.6%	0.6%	0.1%
4	6.0%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Benfica winDrawGil Vicente win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Benfica to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.30, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 80%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Benfica 80%Draw 13%Gil Vicente 6%

80%13%

80%

Benfica Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Benfica and Gil Vicente. Wins shown from Benfica’s perspective: Benfica 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-13	Benfica	3 – 1	Gil Vicente	W
2026-03-02	Gil Vicente	1 – 2	Benfica	W
2025-09-26	Benfica	2 – 1	Gil Vicente	W
2025-03-28	Gil Vicente	0 – 3	Benfica	W
2024-09-28	Benfica	5 – 1	Gil Vicente	W

📈 Recent form

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Benfica.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 0-1 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DFamalicão 0-0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Benfica at 80% to win and Gil Vicente at 6%, with the draw at 13%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	80%	81%	@ 1.16
Draw	13%	13%	@ 7.50
Gil Vicente Win	6%	6%	@ 16.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.01 (93% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	93%	94%	@ 1.01
Gil Vicente or Draw	20%	19%	@ 4.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	83%	@ 1.11
Under 3.5	63%	57%	@ 1.61
Over 2.5	59%	64%	@ 1.43
Under 2.5	41%	36%	@ 2.55
Over 3.5	37%	43%	@ 2.15
Under 1.5	19%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	59%	@ 1.56
BTTS Yes	46%	41%	@ 2.23

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Benfica or Gil Vicente is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica -0.25	83%	86%	1.10
Benfica -0.5	80%	83%	1.14
Benfica -0.75	74%	82%	1.16
Benfica -1	69%	78%	1.19
Benfica -1.25	64%	71%	1.30
Benfica -1.5	58%	65%	1.43
Benfica -1.75	53%	60%	1.54
Gil Vicente +2	53%	45%	@ 2.06
Benfica -2	47%	55%	1.69
Gil Vicente +1.75	47%	40%	@ 2.33
Gil Vicente +1.5	42%	35%	@ 2.62
Gil Vicente +1.25	36%	29%	@ 3.25
Gil Vicente +1	31%	22%	@ 4.31
Gil Vicente +0.75	26%	18%	@ 5.25
Gil Vicente +0.5	20%	17%	@ 5.75
Gil Vicente +0.25	17%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Benfica 83%Draw 12%Gil Vicente 5%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

Our model's main pick is Benfica to win by 1+ goals at odds 1.30, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 80%. It projects an expected 2.4-0.7 scoreline for Benfica vs Gil Vicente.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.35 for Benfica and 0.71 for Gil Vicente. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Benfica and Gil Vicente play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.