vs
⚽ Championship
Birmingham vs Southampton Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs Southampton in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
Birmingham vs Southampton finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Birmingham face Southampton in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 2 wins from their last 5, while Southampton have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Southampton won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.4-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs Southampton with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Birmingham vs Southampton is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Southampton with a +1 start at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Southampton to win by 0+ goals at odds 2.40 (+26.8% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and Southampton. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: 1 drawn · Southampton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Birmingham | 1 – 1 | Southampton | D |
| 2024-03-02 | Birmingham | 3 – 4 | Southampton | L |
| 2023-10-28 | Southampton | 3 – 1 | Birmingham | L |
📈 Recent form
Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Wrexham. Their only defeat in that run was 1-6 at home to Brentford.
- DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- WWrexham 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LBirmingham 1-6 BrentfordLeague Cup
- DBirmingham 2-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DSheffield Utd 0-0 BirminghamChampionship
Southampton come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Millwall. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to West Ham.
- DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- WSouthampton 5-1 MillwallChampionship
- LSouthampton 1-4 West HamLeague Cup
- WSouthampton 3-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LWatford 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
- M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
- L. BuchananKnee Injury
- C. JanderLacking Match Fitness
- T. Harwood-BellisInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Birmingham at 26% to win and Southampton at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 44% | @ 2.75 | +22.5% |
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.45 | +0.7% |
| Birmingham Win | 26% | @ 2.38 | -37.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.55 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton or Draw | 72% | @ 1.55 | +11.6% |
| Birmingham or Draw | 54% | @ 1.42 | -23.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 55% | @ 1.78 | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 3.00 | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | @ 1.24 | -3.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.35 | -8.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | @ 1.95 | -11.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | @ 3.80 | -16.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | @ 1.63 | -5.1% |
| BTTS No | 42% | @ 2.15 | -10.2% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Birmingham or Southampton is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton -1 | 35% | @ 4.82 | +67.4% |
| Southampton -1.25 | 29% | @ 5.25 | +52.0% |
| Southampton -0.75 | 40% | @ 3.46 | +40.4% |
| Southampton -1.5 | 23% | @ 5.75 | +33.3% |
| Southampton -0.25 | 53% | @ 2.40 | +26.8% |
| Southampton -0.5 | 46% | @ 2.72 | +25.8% |
| Southampton 0 | 59% | @ 2.04 | +20.5% |
| Southampton +0.25 | 66% | @ 1.72 | +12.7% |
| Southampton +0.5 | 72% | @ 1.54 | +10.7% |
| Southampton +0.75 | 76% | @ 1.40 | +6.4% |
| Southampton +1.5 | 89% | @ 1.18 | +5.1% |
| Southampton +1.25 | 85% | @ 1.21 | +2.6% |
| Southampton +1.75 | 91% | @ 1.12 | +1.9% |
| Southampton +1 | 80% | @ 1.25 | +0.6% |
| Birmingham +1.5 | 77% | 1.14 | -12.4% |
| Birmingham +1.25 | 71% | 1.16 | -17.6% |
| Birmingham +0.75 | 60% | 1.31 | -21.8% |
| Birmingham -1 | 20% | 4.00 | -22.1% |
| Birmingham +1 | 65% | 1.19 | -22.7% |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 54% | 1.44 | -22.8% |
| Birmingham +0.25 | 47% | 1.58 | -25.3% |
| Birmingham -0.25 | 34% | 2.14 | -26.3% |
| Birmingham 0 | 41% | 1.80 | -26.3% |
| Birmingham -0.75 | 24% | 3.02 | -28.4% |
| Birmingham -0.5 | 28% | 2.40 | -32.7% |
| Birmingham -1.25 | 15% | 4.41 | -33.0% |
| Birmingham -1.75 | 9% | 6.40 | -42.2% |
| Birmingham -1.5 | 11% | 4.80 | -47.5% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our main pick is Southampton with a +1 start at odds 1.25, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Southampton to win by 0+ goals at 2.40 (+26.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.5 scoreline for Birmingham vs Southampton.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Southampton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Birmingham and 1.49 for Southampton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Birmingham and Southampton play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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