vs
⚽ Championship
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Blackburn face Middlesbrough in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Blackburn won 2, Middlesbrough won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Blackburn win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.2-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Blackburn with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Blackburn win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Blackburn 0 at odds 2.50 (+25.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Blackburn and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from Blackburn’s perspective: Blackburn 2 · 1 drawn · Middlesbrough 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | Blackburn | 0 – 2 | Middlesbrough | L |
| 2024-11-27 | Middlesbrough | 0 – 1 | Blackburn | W |
| 2024-03-16 | Middlesbrough | 0 – 0 | Blackburn | D |
| 2023-09-16 | Blackburn | 2 – 1 | Middlesbrough | W |
📈 Recent form
Blackburn come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Strasbourg. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Nottingham Forest.
- DWolves 2-2 BlackburnChampionship
- WBurton Albion 1-2 BlackburnLeague Cup
- DHuddersfield 1-1 BlackburnFriendlies Clubs
- WStrasbourg 0-2 BlackburnFriendlies Clubs
- LNottingham Forest 3-0 BlackburnFriendlies Clubs
Middlesbrough come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Hull City.
- WMiddlesbrough 2-1 LincolnChampionship
- WMiddlesbrough 1-0 WrexhamLeague Cup
- DMiddlesbrough 3-3 EspanyolFriendlies Clubs
- DCeltic 1-1 MiddlesbroughFriendlies Clubs
- LHull City 1-0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. BaradjiHamstring Injury
- D. De NeveInjury
- M. JorgensenInjury
- A. KargboMuscle Injury
- L. MillerAchilles Tendon Injury
- S. WhartonAchilles Tendon Injury
- T. ConwayInjury
- A. MorrisInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Blackburn at 35% to win and Middlesbrough at 35%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Blackburn win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Win | 35% | @ 3.44 | +21.2% |
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.40 | +0.0% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 35% | @ 2.08 | -26.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Blackburn or Draw at 1.70 (63% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn or Draw | 63% | @ 1.70 | +7.1% |
| Middlesbrough or Draw | 63% | @ 1.29 | -18.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 52% | @ 1.86 | -2.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 74% | @ 1.31 | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | @ 1.29 | -5.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | @ 1.95 | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | @ 3.42 | -11.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | @ 2.00 | -4.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | @ 1.75 | -8.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Blackburn or Middlesbrough is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn -1 | 26% | @ 6.80 | +80.4% |
| Blackburn -0.75 | 32% | @ 4.53 | +43.2% |
| Blackburn -0.25 | 43% | @ 3.06 | +32.5% |
| Blackburn -1.25 | 21% | @ 6.00 | +28.5% |
| Blackburn 0 | 50% | @ 2.50 | +25.1% |
| Blackburn +0.25 | 57% | @ 2.07 | +17.2% |
| Blackburn +0.5 | 63% | @ 1.75 | +10.3% |
| Blackburn +0.75 | 68% | @ 1.57 | +7.3% |
| Blackburn -1.5 | 16% | @ 6.55 | +6.7% |
| Blackburn +1.5 | 84% | @ 1.24 | +3.4% |
| Blackburn +1.25 | 79% | @ 1.30 | +2.5% |
| Blackburn +1 | 74% | @ 1.36 | +0.3% |
| Blackburn +1.75 | 86% | @ 1.16 | +0.2% |
| Middlesbrough +1.5 | 84% | 1.09 | -8.8% |
| Middlesbrough +1.25 | 79% | 1.12 | -12.0% |
| Middlesbrough -1 | 27% | 3.12 | -17.0% |
| Middlesbrough +0.5 | 63% | 1.31 | -17.4% |
| Middlesbrough +0.75 | 68% | 1.21 | -17.6% |
| Middlesbrough +1 | 74% | 1.10 | -19.2% |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 57% | 1.39 | -21.3% |
| Middlesbrough -0.25 | 43% | 1.81 | -21.4% |
| Middlesbrough -0.75 | 32% | 2.42 | -23.5% |
| Middlesbrough 0 | 50% | 1.52 | -24.0% |
| Middlesbrough -0.5 | 37% | 2.06 | -24.2% |
| Middlesbrough -1.25 | 21% | 3.52 | -24.5% |
| Middlesbrough -1.75 | 14% | 5.25 | -28.3% |
| Middlesbrough -1.5 | 16% | 3.75 | -38.8% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 42% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 38% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 37% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.30 for the home side, 1.30 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Our main pick is Blackburn with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Blackburn 0 at 2.50 (+25.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
Our model makes a Blackburn win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.4 scoreline for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough.
What is the predicted score for Blackburn vs Middlesbrough?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.22 for Blackburn and 1.36 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Blackburn and Middlesbrough play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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