⚽ UEFA Champions League
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal finished 3-2. Borussia Dortmund won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Borussia Dortmund face Villarreal in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 08 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 75%, projecting a 3.1-0.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 14.7% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 15.4% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 12.1% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +0.25 start at odds 1.29, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 75%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points no (71%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal. Wins shown from Borussia Dortmund’s perspective: Borussia Dortmund 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 – 2 | Villarreal | W |
| 2025-11-25 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 – 0 | Villarreal | W |
📈 Recent form
Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Real Betis.
- WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
- WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- R. BensebainiSuspended (red card)
- E. CanKnee Injury
- M. KabaInjury
- G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury
- J. LermaMuscle Injury
- F. ManeMuscle Injury
- N. SchlotterbeckSuspended (red card)
- J. FoythAchilles Tendon Injury
- C. RomeroInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Borussia Dortmund at 75% to win and Villarreal at 7%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 75% | 54% | @ 1.77 |
| Draw | 18% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Villarreal Win | 7% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.23 (91% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund or Draw | 91% | 77% | @ 1.23 |
| Villarreal or Draw | 24% | 46% | @ 2.02 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.1-0.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 71% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 29% | 63% | @ 1.48 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Borussia Dortmund or Villarreal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund +1 | 94% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.75 | 93% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 91% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.25 | 88% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Borussia Dortmund 0 | 84% | 69% | @ 1.38 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | 80% | 60% | @ 1.58 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.5 | 76% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Borussia Dortmund -0.75 | 70% | 48% | @ 2.02 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1 | 65% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.25 | 59% | 36% | @ 2.68 |
| Villarreal +2 | 57% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.5 | 54% | 32% | @ 2.91 |
| Villarreal +1.75 | 52% | 74% | 1.29 |
| Borussia Dortmund -1.75 | 48% | 26% | @ 3.63 |
| Villarreal +1.5 | 46% | 68% | 1.39 |
| Borussia Dortmund -2 | 43% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Villarreal +1.25 | 41% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Villarreal +1 | 35% | 59% | 1.60 |
| Villarreal +0.75 | 30% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Villarreal +0.5 | 24% | 46% | 2.05 |
| Villarreal +0.25 | 20% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Villarreal 0 | 16% | 31% | 3.02 |
| Villarreal -0.25 | 12% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Villarreal -0.5 | 9% | 24% | 3.85 |
| Villarreal -0.75 | 7% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Villarreal -1 | 6% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
Our model's main pick is Borussia Dortmund with a +0.25 start at odds 1.29, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 75%. It projects an expected 3.1-0.4 scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.15 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.37 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 08 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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