Burgos

Fri 11 Sep3-1Finished

AD Ceuta FC

⚽ Segunda División

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Burgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FC

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC finished 3-1. Burgos won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, did not land.

Burgos face AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Burgos have 1 win from their last 3, while AD Ceuta FC have no wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Burgos won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.27

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 0.84 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	7.8%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
1	14.3%	12.0%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.0%	9.2%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.6%	4.7%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.2%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Burgos winDrawAD Ceuta FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burgos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Burgos 54%Draw 26%AD Ceuta FC 20%

54%26%20%

54%

Burgos Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC. Wins shown from Burgos’s perspective: Burgos 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-11	Burgos	3 – 1	AD Ceuta FC	W
2026-04-01	Burgos	1 – 1	AD Ceuta FC	D

📈 Recent form

Burgos

Burgos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to AD Ceuta FC. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sporting Gijon.

WLas Palmas 1-2 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
DOviedo 0-0 BurgosSegunda División
LSporting Gijon 1-0 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-2 CordobaSegunda División

AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Burgos.

DAD Ceuta FC 1-1 ValladolidSegunda División
LBurgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
LMallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
LAD Ceuta FC 0-2 Las PalmasSegunda División
LFC Andorra 5-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burgos at 54% to win and AD Ceuta FC at 20%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burgos Win	54%	56%	@ 1.61
Draw	26%	25%	@ 3.55
AD Ceuta FC Win	20%	18%	@ 4.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burgos or Draw at 1.13 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burgos or Draw	78%	82%	@ 1.13
AD Ceuta FC or Draw	46%	44%	@ 2.08

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	73%	@ 1.27
Over 1.5	69%	72%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	58%	52%	@ 1.77
Over 2.5	42%	48%	@ 1.92
Under 1.5	31%	28%	@ 3.30
Over 3.5	22%	27%	@ 3.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	55%	52%	@ 1.76
BTTS Yes	45%	48%	@ 1.88

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burgos or AD Ceuta FC is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burgos +0.75	82%	86%	1.10
Burgos +0.5	78%	81%	1.17
AD Ceuta FC +2	78%	79%	1.19
AD Ceuta FC +1.75	74%	73%	1.30
Burgos +0.25	72%	79%	1.21
AD Ceuta FC +1.5	70%	67%	1.42
Burgos 0	66%	76%	1.25
AD Ceuta FC +1.25	64%	62%	1.52
Burgos -0.25	60%	66%	1.45
AD Ceuta FC +1	58%	56%	1.71
Burgos -0.5	54%	58%	1.65
AD Ceuta FC +0.75	52%	48%	@ 2.00
Burgos -0.75	48%	52%	1.84
AD Ceuta FC +0.5	46%	42%	@ 2.27
Burgos -1	42%	44%	2.17
AD Ceuta FC +0.25	40%	34%	@ 2.77
Burgos -1.25	36%	38%	2.52
AD Ceuta FC 0	34%	24%	@ 3.94
Burgos -1.5	30%	33%	2.88
AD Ceuta FC -0.25	28%	21%	@ 4.54
Burgos -1.75	26%	27%	3.58
Burgos -2	22%	21%	4.50
AD Ceuta FC -0.5	22%	19%	@ 5.00
AD Ceuta FC -0.75	18%	14%	@ 6.80

📈 How the market moved

Burgos 57%Draw 25%AD Ceuta FC 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC.

What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Burgos and 0.84 for AD Ceuta FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burgos and AD Ceuta FC play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.