⚽ Segunda División

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Burgos face AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Burgos have 1 win from their last 3, while AD Ceuta FC have 0 wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.27

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 0.84 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	7.8%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
1	14.3%	12.0%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.0%	9.2%	3.9%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.6%	4.7%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.2%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Burgos winDrawAD Ceuta FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Burgos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.77 (+1.8% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.77, 58% model probability, +1.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Burgos 54%Draw 26%AD Ceuta FC 20%

54%26%20%

54%

Burgos Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+1.8%

Best value: Under 2.5

📈 Recent form

Burgos

Burgos come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Cordoba. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Sporting Gijon.

DOviedo 0-0 BurgosSegunda División
LSporting Gijon 1-0 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-2 CordobaSegunda División
LBurgos 0-3 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
WUnionistas de Salamanca 0-1 BurgosFriendlies Clubs

AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Cadiz. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Mallorca.

LMallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
LAD Ceuta FC 0-2 Las PalmasSegunda División
LFC Andorra 5-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
WAD Ceuta FC 2-1 MalagaFriendlies Clubs
WCadiz 1-3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burgos at 54% to win and AD Ceuta FC at 20%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AD Ceuta FC Win	20%	@ 4.90	+0.6%
Draw	26%	@ 3.55	-7.9%
Burgos Win	54%	@ 1.61	-13.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AD Ceuta FC or Draw at 2.08 (46% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
AD Ceuta FC or Draw	46%	@ 2.08	-5.4%
Burgos or Draw	78%	@ 1.13	-11.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	31%	@ 3.30	+3.2%
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.77	+1.8%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.27	-0.6%
Over 1.5	69%	@ 1.28	-12.0%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 1.92	-18.4%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 3.35	-27.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 1.76	-2.5%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.88	-16.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	57%
Dixon-Coles	Home	50%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.71 for the home side, 0.98 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.77 (+1.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.8 scoreline for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC.

What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Burgos and 0.84 for AD Ceuta FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burgos and AD Ceuta FC play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.