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⚽ Segunda División
Burgos vs Cordoba Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burgos vs Cordoba in the Segunda División. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Burgos face Cordoba in the Segunda División, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.1-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burgos vs Cordoba with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Burgos vs Cordoba is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Burgos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points no (62%).
📊 Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Burgos at 43% to win and Cordoba at 25%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 32% | @ 3.15 | -0.2% |
| Burgos Win | 43% | @ 2.28 | -1.0% |
| Cordoba Win | 25% | @ 3.15 | -21.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burgos or Draw at 1.35 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos or Draw | 72% | @ 1.35 | -2.7% |
| Cordoba or Draw | 54% | @ 1.60 | -14.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 42% | @ 2.90 | +22.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | @ 1.65 | +14.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 87% | @ 1.22 | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | @ 1.40 | -19.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | @ 2.20 | -32.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | @ 4.20 | -44.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 62% | @ 1.83 | +14.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 38% | @ 1.85 | -30.4% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 39% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 48% |
Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.
Expected goals: 1.51 for the home side, 1.11 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burgos vs Cordoba?
Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 69% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Burgos vs Cordoba?
Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.8 scoreline for Burgos vs Cordoba.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs Cordoba?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Burgos and 0.79 for Cordoba. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Burgos and Cordoba play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.