vs
⚽ Championship
Burnley vs Bristol City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Bristol City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Burnley 1-2 Bristol City
Burnley vs Bristol City finished 1-2. Bristol City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Burnley face Bristol City in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Burnley have 0 wins from their last 3, while Bristol City have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Burnley won 2, Bristol City won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 1.7-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Bristol City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.2% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Burnley vs Bristol City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Burnley to win or draw at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 86%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Burnley to win by 1+ goals at odds 2.77 (+47.5% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Burnley and Bristol City. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: Burnley 2 · Bristol City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Burnley | 1 – 2 | Bristol City | L |
| 2025-03-29 | Burnley | 1 – 0 | Bristol City | W |
| 2024-11-23 | Bristol City | 0 – 1 | Burnley | W |
📈 Recent form
Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bristol City.
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- LNorwich 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DBradford 0-0 BurnleyLeague Cup
- LWest Brom 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
Bristol City come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Preston. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Millwall.
- WBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- WPreston 1-3 Bristol CityChampionship
- WBristol City 2-1 PortsmouthChampionship
- DBirmingham 2-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- LBristol City 0-2 MillwallChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- B. HumphreysNot in squad
- Lucas PiresNot in squad
- L. McNallyKnee Injury
- B. De KeersmaeckerShoulder Injury
- G. TannerKnock
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Burnley at 65% to win and Bristol City at 14%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 65% | @ 1.81 | +18.2% |
| Draw | 21% | @ 3.60 | -24.1% |
| Bristol City Win | 14% | @ 4.10 | -44.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.22 (86% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 86% | @ 1.22 | +4.6% |
| Bristol City or Draw | 34% | @ 1.95 | -33.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 29% | @ 3.75 | +8.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | @ 1.94 | +6.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 76% | @ 1.34 | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | @ 1.24 | -11.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | @ 1.81 | -17.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | @ 3.05 | -26.7% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 56% | @ 2.00 | +11.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 44% | @ 1.73 | -23.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or Bristol City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley -2 | 31% | @ 6.25 | +93.9% |
| Burnley -1.75 | 36% | @ 4.25 | +53.2% |
| Burnley -1.25 | 47% | @ 3.13 | +47.8% |
| Burnley -1 | 53% | @ 2.77 | +47.5% |
| Burnley -1.5 | 41% | @ 3.56 | +46.2% |
| Burnley -0.75 | 60% | @ 2.21 | +31.8% |
| Burnley -0.5 | 66% | @ 1.98 | +30.0% |
| Burnley -0.25 | 71% | @ 1.68 | +18.7% |
| Burnley +0.5 | 86% | @ 1.27 | +8.9% |
| Burnley 0 | 76% | @ 1.43 | +8.3% |
| Burnley +0.25 | 81% | @ 1.33 | +7.4% |
| Burnley +0.75 | 88% | @ 1.17 | +3.2% |
| Bristol City +1.75 | 64% | 1.21 | -22.6% |
| Bristol City +2 | 69% | 1.12 | -22.7% |
| Bristol City +1.5 | 59% | 1.30 | -23.4% |
| Bristol City +1.25 | 53% | 1.37 | -27.7% |
| Bristol City 0 | 24% | 2.85 | -30.9% |
| Bristol City +0.75 | 40% | 1.68 | -32.0% |
| Bristol City +1 | 47% | 1.46 | -32.1% |
| Bristol City +0.5 | 34% | 1.90 | -34.9% |
| Bristol City -0.25 | 19% | 3.37 | -35.1% |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 29% | 2.21 | -35.2% |
| Bristol City -0.75 | 12% | 5.00 | -41.2% |
| Bristol City -0.5 | 14% | 3.77 | -46.3% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our main pick is Burnley to win or draw at odds 1.27, with 86% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Burnley to win by 1+ goals at 2.77 (+47.5% value).
Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.8 scoreline for Burnley vs Bristol City.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Bristol City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Burnley and 0.78 for Bristol City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Burnley and Bristol City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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