Wed 2 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Burnley vs Middlesbrough Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough

Burnley vs Middlesbrough finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at 1.41, landed.

Burnley face Middlesbrough in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Middlesbrough with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.41

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.68 – 0.94 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	6.8%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
1	12.2%	11.5%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.3%	9.7%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	5.8%	5.4%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.4%	2.3%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Burnley winDrawMiddlesbrough win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.41, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Burnley 66%Draw 20%Middlesbrough 14%

66%20%14%

66%

Burnley Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Burnley and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-02	Burnley	1 – 1	Middlesbrough	D
2024-12-29	Middlesbrough	0 – 0	Burnley	D
2024-12-06	Burnley	1 – 1	Middlesbrough	D

📈 Recent form

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-3 at home to Norwich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Crystal Palace.

DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
WMiddlesbrough 4-3 NorwichChampionship
LCrystal Palace 3-0 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
WQPR 0-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Burnley

E. AgyeiInjury
J. BanelInjury
A. BarnesInjury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury
B. HumphreysNot in squad
J. LaurentSuspended (red card)

Middlesbrough

A. BanguraCoach's decision

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burnley at 66% to win and Middlesbrough at 14%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	66%	35%	@ 2.65
Draw	20%	27%	@ 3.40
Middlesbrough Win	14%	38%	@ 2.48

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.52 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	86%	62%	@ 1.52
Middlesbrough or Draw	34%	65%	@ 1.45

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	73%	68%	@ 1.37
Under 2.5	51%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	49%	53%	@ 1.74
Over 3.5	27%	32%	@ 2.90
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	58%	@ 1.60
BTTS No	50%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or Middlesbrough is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley +1.75	96%	84%	@ 1.12
Burnley +1.5	96%	79%	@ 1.19
Burnley +1.25	93%	78%	@ 1.22
Burnley +1	91%	76%	@ 1.25
Burnley +0.75	88%	67%	@ 1.41
Burnley +0.5	86%	61%	@ 1.55
Burnley +0.25	81%	55%	@ 1.75
Burnley 0	76%	47%	@ 2.03
Burnley -0.25	71%	40%	@ 2.40
Burnley -0.5	66%	35%	@ 2.65
Middlesbrough +1.75	64%	86%	1.10
Burnley -0.75	59%	28%	@ 3.36
Middlesbrough +1.5	59%	83%	1.15
Burnley -1	53%	21%	@ 4.60
Middlesbrough +1.25	53%	81%	1.17
Burnley -1.25	47%	19%	@ 5.00
Middlesbrough +1	47%	79%	1.20
Burnley -1.5	41%	17%	@ 5.50
Middlesbrough +0.75	41%	72%	1.33
Burnley -1.75	36%	14%	@ 7.00
Middlesbrough +0.5	34%	65%	1.45
Middlesbrough +0.25	29%	60%	1.59
Middlesbrough 0	24%	53%	1.81
Middlesbrough -0.25	19%	45%	2.10
Middlesbrough -0.5	14%	39%	2.39
Middlesbrough -0.75	12%	33%	2.90
Middlesbrough -1	9%	24%	3.90
Middlesbrough -1.25	7%	22%	4.29
Middlesbrough -1.5	4%	21%	4.50
Middlesbrough -1.75	4%	16%	6.00

📈 How the market moved

Burnley 35%Draw 27%Middlesbrough 38%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?

Our model's main pick is Burnley Asian Handicap with a +0.75 start at odds 1.41, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Burnley vs Middlesbrough.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.68 for Burnley and 0.94 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burnley and Middlesbrough play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 02 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.