⚽ Championship
Burnley vs West Ham Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs West Ham in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Result: Burnley 2-2 West Ham
Burnley vs West Ham finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Burnley face West Ham in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, West Ham won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.5-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs West Ham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14.1% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Burnley vs West Ham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 92% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Burnley and West Ham. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 2 drawn · West Ham 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Burnley | 2 – 2 | West Ham | D |
| 2026-02-07 | Burnley | 0 – 2 | West Ham | L |
| 2025-11-08 | West Ham | 3 – 2 | Burnley | L |
| 2024-03-10 | West Ham | 2 – 2 | Burnley | D |
| 2023-11-25 | Burnley | 1 – 2 | West Ham | L |
📈 Recent form
Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
West Ham come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at home to Wrexham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Fulham.
- DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
- LWest Ham 2-3 FulhamLeague Cup
- WWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
- WWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
- K. LamadridKnee Injury
- T. SoucekAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Burnley at 54% to win and West Ham at 7%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 54% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| Draw | 39% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| West Ham Win | 7% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.58 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 84% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| West Ham or Draw | 37% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 84% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 77% | @ 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 | 38% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 66% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 34% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or West Ham is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley +1.75 | 96% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| Burnley +1.5 | 95% | 77% | @ 1.21 |
| Burnley +1.25 | 92% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Burnley +1 | 90% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 87% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Burnley +0.5 | 84% | 57% | @ 1.64 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 79% | 50% | @ 1.94 |
| Burnley 0 | 74% | 42% | @ 2.27 |
| Burnley -0.25 | 68% | 35% | @ 2.72 |
| West Ham +1.5 | 62% | – | 1.11 |
| Burnley -0.75 | 57% | 24% | @ 3.88 |
| West Ham +1.25 | 56% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Burnley -1 | 51% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| West Ham +1 | 49% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Burnley -1.25 | 44% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| West Ham +0.75 | 43% | 76% | 1.26 |
| West Ham +0.5 | 37% | – | 1.37 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 32% | 65% | 1.47 |
| West Ham 0 | 26% | 58% | 1.64 |
| West Ham -0.25 | 21% | 50% | 1.93 |
| West Ham -0.5 | 16% | 43% | 2.21 |
| West Ham -0.75 | 13% | 37% | 2.57 |
| West Ham -1 | 10% | 28% | 3.35 |
| West Ham -1.25 | 8% | 26% | 3.69 |
| West Ham -1.5 | 5% | 23% | 4.00 |
| West Ham -1.75 | 4% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burnley vs West Ham?
Our model's main pick is Burnley with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 92% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Burnley vs West Ham?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs West Ham?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Burnley and 0.58 for West Ham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Burnley and West Ham play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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