⚽ Championship

Burnley vs West Ham Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs West Ham in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Burnley face West Ham in the Championship, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, West Ham won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.5-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs West Ham with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley or Draw @ 1.60

84%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 0.58 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	7.2%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
1	18.7%	10.9%	3.2%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.1%	8.2%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%
3	7.0%	4.1%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
4	2.6%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Burnley winDrawWest Ham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burnley vs West Ham is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.60, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (66%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Burnley win at odds 2.84 (+54.2% model value).

Best value

Burnley Win at odds 2.84, 54% model probability, +54.2% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Burnley 54%Draw 39%West Ham 7%

54%39%

54%

Burnley Win

66%

Under 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS no

+54.2%

Best value: Burnley Win

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Burnley and West Ham. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 1 drawn · West Ham 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-07	Burnley	0 – 2	West Ham	L
2025-11-08	West Ham	3 – 2	Burnley	L
2024-03-10	West Ham	2 – 2	Burnley	D
2023-11-25	Burnley	1 – 2	West Ham	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burnley at 54% to win and West Ham at 7%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley Win	54%	@ 2.84	+54.2%
Draw	39%	@ 3.55	+37.5%
West Ham Win	7%	@ 2.30	-83.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.60 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley or Draw	84%	@ 1.60	+34.6%
West Ham or Draw	37%	@ 1.40	-48.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	38%	@ 4.00	+53.9%
Under 2.5	66%	@ 2.10	+37.6%
Under 3.5	84%	@ 1.42	+19.6%
Over 1.5	62%	@ 1.22	-24.9%
Over 2.5	34%	@ 1.70	-41.4%
Over 3.5	16%	@ 2.80	-55.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	66%	@ 2.25	+48.3%
BTTS Yes	34%	@ 1.60	-45.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	60%
GradientBoosting	Home	52%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.96 for the home side, 0.86 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (19%), 2-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs West Ham?

Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.60, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Burnley win at 2.84 (+54.2% value).

Who is the favourite for Burnley vs West Ham?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.6 scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs West Ham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Burnley and 0.58 for West Ham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burnley and West Ham play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.