⚽ Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs FC Porto Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Casa Pia vs FC Porto in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Result: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto
Casa Pia vs FC Porto finished 1-4. FC Porto won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.34, did not land.
Casa Pia face FC Porto in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Casa Pia have no wins from their last 5, while FC Porto have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, FC Porto won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 0.6-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Casa Pia vs FC Porto with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is FC Porto to win at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a FC Porto win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Casa Pia and FC Porto. Wins shown from Casa Pia’s perspective: Casa Pia 1 · FC Porto 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Casa Pia | 1 – 4 | FC Porto | L |
| 2026-02-02 | Casa Pia | 2 – 1 | FC Porto | W |
| 2025-08-24 | FC Porto | 4 – 0 | Casa Pia | L |
| 2025-04-12 | Casa Pia | 0 – 1 | FC Porto | L |
| 2024-12-02 | FC Porto | 2 – 0 | Casa Pia | L |
📈 Recent form
Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.
- WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
FC Porto come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Casa Pia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Manchester City.
- WFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- WFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- WAcadémico de Viseu 0-3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Casa Pia at 9% to win and FC Porto at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto Win | 73% | 75% | @ 1.26 |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | @ 5.40 |
| Casa Pia Win | 9% | 8% | @ 12.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Porto or Draw at 1.03 (90% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto or Draw | 90% | 92% | @ 1.03 |
| Casa Pia or Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.45 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.6-2.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 75% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 69% | @ 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 48% | @ 1.92 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 52% | @ 1.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 31% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 60% | 61% | @ 1.49 |
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Casa Pia or FC Porto is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto -0.25 | 78% | 80% | 1.18 |
| FC Porto -0.5 | 74% | – | 1.26 |
| FC Porto -0.75 | 68% | 73% | 1.31 |
| FC Porto -1 | 62% | 68% | 1.39 |
| Casa Pia +2 | 60% | 62% | 1.54 |
| FC Porto -1.25 | 56% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Casa Pia +1.75 | 55% | 54% | 1.77 |
| FC Porto -1.5 | 50% | 52% | 1.83 |
| Casa Pia +1.5 | 50% | 48% | @ 2.02 |
| FC Porto -1.75 | 45% | 46% | 2.07 |
| Casa Pia +1.25 | 44% | 41% | @ 2.32 |
| FC Porto -2 | 40% | 38% | 2.46 |
| Casa Pia +1 | 38% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Casa Pia +0.75 | 32% | 27% | @ 3.47 |
| Casa Pia +0.25 | 22% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Our model's main pick is FC Porto to win at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.
Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 0.6-2.0 scoreline for Casa Pia vs FC Porto.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.64 for Casa Pia and 1.98 for FC Porto. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Casa Pia and FC Porto play?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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UdineseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.