Sat 15 Aug2-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Charlton vs Derby Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charlton vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Charlton 2-1 Derby

Charlton vs Derby finished 2-1. Charlton won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Charlton face Derby in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charlton vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.34

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.56 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	7.4%	5.8%	3.0%	1.2%
1	7.1%	11.0%	8.6%	4.5%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.2%	6.4%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.6%	4.1%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Charlton winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Charlton vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Charlton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Charlton 38%Draw 30%Derby 33%

38%30%33%

38%

Charlton Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Charlton

Charlton come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Cardiff.

LCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
DCharlton 0-0 QPRChampionship
LStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Charlton

J. EdwardsAnkle Injury
C. KelmanShoulder Injury
M. MbickKnee Injury
T. OumaLacking Match Fitness
K. RamsayAnkle Injury

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Charlton at 38% to win and Derby at 33%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Charlton Win	38%	35%	@ 2.65
Derby Win	33%	35%	@ 2.63
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.15

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlton or Draw at 1.46 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Charlton or Draw	66%	65%	@ 1.46
Derby or Draw	61%	65%	@ 1.45

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	69%	@ 1.34
Under 3.5	64%	76%	@ 1.23
Over 2.5	59%	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	41%	56%	@ 1.68
Over 3.5	36%	24%	@ 3.85
Under 1.5	19%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	61%	51%	@ 1.81
BTTS No	39%	49%	@ 1.90

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Charlton or Derby is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Charlton +1.5	85%	–	1.13
Derby +1.5	82%	–	1.12
Charlton +1.25	80%	82%	1.16
Derby +1.25	77%	82%	1.16
Charlton +1	75%	80%	1.20
Derby +1	71%	–	1.19
Charlton +0.75	70%	72%	1.33
Derby +0.75	66%	72%	1.32
Charlton +0.5	66%	64%	1.47
Derby +0.5	61%	64%	1.46
Charlton +0.25	59%	59%	1.62
Derby +0.25	54%	59%	1.62
Charlton 0	52%	50%	1.91
Derby 0	48%	50%	1.90
Charlton -0.25	46%	41%	@ 2.33
Derby -0.25	41%	41%	2.31
Charlton -0.5	39%	36%	@ 2.62
Derby -0.5	34%	36%	2.61
Charlton -0.75	34%	28%	@ 3.37
Derby -0.75	30%	28%	3.35
Derby -1	25%	20%	@ 4.70
Charlton -1.25	23%	18%	@ 5.25
Derby -1.25	20%	18%	@ 5.25

📈 How the market moved

Charlton 35%Draw 30%Derby 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charlton vs Derby?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Charlton vs Derby?

Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Charlton vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Charlton and 1.56 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Charlton and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.