⚽ Championship

Charlton vs Derby Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charlton vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Charlton face Derby in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charlton vs Derby with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

81%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.56 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.7%	7.4%	5.8%	3.0%	1.2%
1	7.1%	11.0%	8.6%	4.5%	1.7%
2	5.3%	8.2%	6.4%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.6%	4.1%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Charlton winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Charlton vs Derby is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Charlton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.00 (+17.6% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.00, 59% model probability, +17.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Charlton 38%Draw 30%Derby 33%

38%30%33%

38%

Charlton Win

59%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+17.6%

Best value: Over 2.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Charlton at 38% to win and Derby at 33%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	@ 3.30	-2.0%
Charlton Win	38%	@ 2.58	-3.0%
Derby Win	33%	@ 2.64	-13.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlton or Draw at 1.45 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Charlton or Draw	66%	@ 1.45	-4.9%
Derby or Draw	61%	@ 1.48	-10.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	36%	@ 3.55	+29.2%
Over 2.5	59%	@ 2.00	+17.6%
Over 1.5	81%	@ 1.33	+7.5%
Under 3.5	64%	@ 1.28	-18.6%
Under 2.5	41%	@ 1.80	-25.8%
Under 1.5	19%	@ 3.25	-37.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.75	+7.1%
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.00	-22.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	40%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.35 for the home side, 1.25 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charlton vs Derby?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.00 (+17.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Charlton vs Derby?

Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.6 scoreline for Charlton vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Charlton and 1.56 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Charlton and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.