⚽ Championship

Charlton vs QPR Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Charlton vs QPR in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Charlton face QPR in the Championship, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Charlton have 3 wins from their last 4, while QPR have 3 wins from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Charlton vs QPR with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

75%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 1.29 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	8.9%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
1	9.6%	12.3%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.5%	5.5%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.0%	3.9%	2.5%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Charlton winDrawQPR win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Charlton vs QPR is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Charlton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Charlton or Draw at odds 1.58 (+4.5% model value).

Best value

Charlton or Draw at odds 1.58, 66% model probability, +4.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Charlton 38%Draw 30%QPR 32%

38%30%32%

38%

Charlton Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+4.5%

Best value: Charlton or Draw

📈 Recent form

Charlton

Charlton come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Preston. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Stoke City.

LStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship
WCharlton 1-0 PrestonChampionship
LTottenham 5-1 CharltonLeague Cup
WWest Ham 1-2 CharltonChampionship

QPR

QPR come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Portsmouth. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Middlesbrough.

LQPR 0-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship
WBlackburn 1-2 QPRChampionship
DQPR 0-0 BoltonChampionship
WPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Charlton

N. ChalobahMuscle Injury
M. GoddenMuscle Injury
W. MannionShoulder Injury
D. McNamaraSuspended (red card)
K. RamsayAnkle Injury
C. SichenjeKnee Injury
J. EdwardsAnkle Injury
C. KelmanShoulder Injury

QPR

K. DembeleKnee Injury
B. KemperAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Charlton at 38% to win and QPR at 32%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Charlton Win	38%	@ 3.00	+14.1%
Draw	30%	@ 3.30	-1.3%
QPR Win	32%	@ 2.30	-26.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlton or Draw at 1.58 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Charlton or Draw	66%	@ 1.58	+4.5%
QPR or Draw	60%	@ 1.37	-17.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	28%	@ 3.55	-0.8%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.98	-1.2%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.30	-3.0%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.26	-9.2%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 1.75	-12.3%
Under 1.5	25%	@ 3.25	-17.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	@ 1.74	-5.3%
BTTS No	46%	@ 1.98	-9.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	39%
Dixon-Coles	Home	38%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.36 for the home side, 1.23 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charlton vs QPR?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Charlton or Draw at 1.58 (+4.5% value).

Who is the favourite for Charlton vs QPR?

Our model makes a Charlton win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Charlton vs QPR.

What is the predicted score for Charlton vs QPR?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Charlton and 1.29 for QPR. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Charlton and QPR play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.