⚽ Championship

Derby vs Birmingham Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Birmingham in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Derby face Birmingham in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 5, while Birmingham have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Birmingham with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.26

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.16 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	11.4%	6.5%	2.5%	0.7%
1	11.6%	13.3%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.7%	7.7%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.6%	3.0%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawBirmingham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Birmingham is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.97 (+7.6% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.97, 55% model probability, +7.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Derby 37%Draw 31%Birmingham 32%

37%31%32%

37%

Derby Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+7.6%

Best value: BTTS No

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to West Brom.

LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 0-3 SwanseaChampionship
DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Wrexham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Norwich.

LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
WWrexham 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LBirmingham 1-6 BrentfordLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
F. BilbijaNot in squad
R. BrewsterInjury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
C. MorrisCalf Injury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
L. TravisLeg Injury

Birmingham

M. BirdNot in squad
T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
J. E. Solis RomeroNot in squad
D. GrayInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 37% to win and Birmingham at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Derby Win	37%	@ 3.20	+17.7%
Draw	31%	@ 3.25	+2.2%
Birmingham Win	32%	@ 2.20	-30.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.63 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Derby or Draw	66%	@ 1.63	+7.1%
Birmingham or Draw	61%	@ 1.33	-19.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	33%	@ 3.30	+9.2%
Under 2.5	60%	@ 1.77	+5.5%
Under 3.5	80%	@ 1.26	+0.7%
Over 1.5	67%	@ 1.30	-13.0%
Over 2.5	40%	@ 1.98	-20.0%
Over 3.5	20%	@ 3.55	-28.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 1.97	+7.6%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.75	-20.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Birmingham?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.97 (+7.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Birmingham?

Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Derby vs Birmingham.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Birmingham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.16 for Derby and 1.14 for Birmingham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Birmingham play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.