Sat 12 Sep1-2Finished

⚽ Championship

Derby vs Birmingham Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Birmingham in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Derby 1-2 Birmingham

Derby vs Birmingham finished 1-2. Birmingham won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.26, landed.

Derby face Birmingham in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 5, while Birmingham have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Birmingham with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Derby +1.25 @ 1.28

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.16 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	11.4%	6.5%	2.5%	0.7%
1	11.6%	13.3%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.7%	7.7%	4.4%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.6%	3.0%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawBirmingham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Birmingham comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Derby with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Derby 37%Draw 31%Birmingham 32%

37%31%32%

37%

Derby Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Norwich.

DBirmingham 2-2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
DBirmingham 2-2 WolvesChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
F. BilbijaBack Injury
R. BrewsterInjury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
L. TravisLeg Injury

Birmingham

M. BirdNot in squad
T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
D. GrayInjury
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
P. RobertsHealth problems
S. WrightOff the roster

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 37% to win and Birmingham at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby Win	37%	29%	@ 3.20
Birmingham Win	32%	42%	@ 2.20
Draw	31%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.63 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby or Draw	66%	58%	@ 1.63
Birmingham or Draw	61%	71%	@ 1.33

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	74%	@ 1.26
Over 1.5	67%	72%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	60%	53%	@ 1.77
Over 2.5	40%	47%	@ 1.98
Under 1.5	33%	28%	@ 3.30
Over 3.5	20%	26%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	55%	47%	@ 1.97
BTTS Yes	45%	53%	@ 1.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or Birmingham is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby +1.75	88%	82%	@ 1.16
Derby +1.5	85%	76%	@ 1.24
Birmingham +1.5	82%	86%	1.10
Derby +1.25	80%	74%	@ 1.28
Birmingham +1.25	77%	86%	1.10
Derby +1	76%	70%	@ 1.35
Birmingham +1	71%	86%	1.10
Derby +0.75	71%	61%	@ 1.56
Birmingham +0.75	66%	–	1.20
Derby +0.5	66%	54%	@ 1.77
Birmingham +0.5	61%	74%	1.29
Derby +0.25	59%	47%	@ 2.08
Birmingham +0.25	54%	70%	1.38
Derby 0	52%	36%	@ 2.67
Birmingham 0	48%	64%	1.49
Derby -0.25	46%	30%	@ 3.13
Birmingham -0.25	41%	53%	1.80
Derby -0.5	39%	26%	@ 3.61
Birmingham -0.5	34%	46%	2.08
Birmingham -0.75	29%	39%	2.43
Derby -1	29%	14%	@ 7.00
Birmingham -1	24%	30%	3.17
Derby -1.25	23%	14%	@ 7.00
Birmingham -1.25	20%	26%	3.63
Derby -1.5	18%	14%	@ 7.00
Birmingham -1.5	15%	24%	3.90
Birmingham -1.75	12%	18%	5.25

📈 How the market moved

Derby 27%Draw 28%Birmingham 45%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Birmingham?

Our model's main pick is Derby with a +1.25 start at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Birmingham?

Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Derby vs Birmingham.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Birmingham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.16 for Derby and 1.14 for Birmingham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Birmingham play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.