⚽ Championship
Derby vs Stoke City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Stoke City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Derby 0-1 Stoke City
Derby vs Stoke City finished 0-1. Stoke City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Derby face Stoke City in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Derby have no wins from their last 5, while Stoke City have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Derby won 1, Stoke City won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 34%, projecting a 1.3-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Stoke City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Derby vs Stoke City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 34%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Derby and Stoke City. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Derby 1 · 1 drawn · Stoke City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Derby | 0 – 1 | Stoke City | L |
| 2026-04-06 | Derby | 2 – 0 | Stoke City | W |
| 2025-05-03 | Derby | 0 – 0 | Stoke City | D |
| 2024-11-02 | Stoke City | 2 – 1 | Derby | L |
📈 Recent form
Derby come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Stoke City.
- LDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship
- DDerby 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Derby. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Middlesbrough.
- WDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LStoke City 2-3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- WBolton 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- E. CashinNot in squad
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- M. JohnstonNot in squad
- S. LangasInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- C. TaylorInjury
- A. AmpahKnee Injury
- A. CresswellKnee Injury
- S. GallagherInjury
- S. IngelssonMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derby at 34% to win and Stoke City at 32%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 34% | 32% | @ 2.90 |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Stoke City Win | 32% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.57 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby or Draw | 64% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Stoke City or Draw | 62% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 79% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 1.5 | 32% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 53% | 46% | @ 2.00 |
| BTTS Yes | 47% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or Stoke City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby +1.75 | 87% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Stoke City +1.75 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Derby +1.5 | 84% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Stoke City +1.5 | 83% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Derby +1.25 | 79% | – | 1.23 |
| Stoke City +1.25 | 78% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Derby +1 | 74% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Stoke City +1 | 73% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Derby +0.75 | 69% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| Stoke City +0.75 | 68% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Derby +0.5 | 64% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Stoke City +0.5 | 62% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Derby +0.25 | 58% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| Stoke City +0.25 | 56% | 62% | 1.52 |
| Derby 0 | 51% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Stoke City 0 | 49% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Derby -0.25 | 44% | 38% | @ 2.54 |
| Stoke City -0.25 | 42% | 47% | 2.06 |
| Derby -0.5 | 38% | 33% | @ 2.90 |
| Stoke City -0.5 | 36% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Derby -0.75 | 32% | 26% | @ 3.61 |
| Stoke City -0.75 | 31% | 34% | 2.79 |
| Derby -1 | 27% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Stoke City -1 | 26% | 25% | 3.73 |
| Derby -1.25 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Derby -1.5 | 17% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Stoke City -1.5 | 16% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Derby -1.75 | 14% | 14% | 7.00 |
| Stoke City -1.75 | 13% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 34%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.1 scoreline for Derby vs Stoke City.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.26 for Derby and 1.07 for Stoke City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derby and Stoke City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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