Sat 29 Aug0-3Finished

⚽ Championship

Derby vs Swansea Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Derby 0-3 Swansea

Derby vs Swansea finished 0-3. Swansea won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Derby face Swansea in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 5, while Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Swansea won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Swansea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.26

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.25 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	10.3%	6.4%	2.6%	0.8%
1	10.4%	12.9%	8.0%	3.3%	1.0%
2	6.5%	8.0%	5.0%	2.1%	0.6%
3	2.7%	3.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawSwansea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Swansea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Swansea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Derby 34%Draw 30%Swansea 36%

34%30%36%

36%

Swansea Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Derby and Swansea. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Swansea 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Derby	0 – 3	Swansea	L
2025-04-05	Swansea	1 – 0	Derby	L
2024-11-27	Derby	1 – 2	Swansea	L

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.

WLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury

Swansea

C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
B. CabangoNot in squad
G. FrancoAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 34% to win and Swansea at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Swansea Win	36%	30%	@ 3.15
Derby Win	34%	40%	@ 2.32
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Swansea or Draw at 1.58 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Swansea or Draw	64%	60%	@ 1.58
Derby or Draw	62%	70%	@ 1.34

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	74%	@ 1.26
Over 1.5	71%	71%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	55%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	45%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	29%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 3.5	24%	26%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	53%	@ 1.74
BTTS No	50%	47%	@ 1.98

📈 How the market moved

Derby 41%Draw 29%Swansea 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Swansea?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Swansea?

Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Derby vs Swansea.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Swansea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.25 for Derby and 1.24 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Swansea play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.