⚽ Championship

Derby vs Swansea Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Derby face Swansea in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 5, while Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Swansea won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Swansea with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.25 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	10.3%	6.4%	2.6%	0.8%
1	10.4%	12.9%	8.0%	3.3%	1.0%
2	6.5%	8.0%	5.0%	2.1%	0.6%
3	2.7%	3.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawSwansea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Swansea is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Swansea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.90 (+3.8% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.90, 55% model probability, +3.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Derby 34%Draw 30%Swansea 36%

34%30%36%

36%

Swansea Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

+3.8%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Derby and Swansea. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Swansea 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-05	Swansea	1 – 0	Derby	L
2024-11-27	Derby	1 – 2	Swansea	L

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Charlton.

DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship
LCharlton 2-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 LincolnLeague Cup
DRotherham 1-1 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
LBurton Albion 1-0 DerbyFriendlies Clubs

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Stoke City. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Birmingham.

DSwansea 0-0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
WStoke City 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
LSwansea 0-1 BirminghamLeague Cup
WSwansea 1-0 LeganesFriendlies Clubs
LMerthyr Town 3-0 SwanseaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 34% to win and Swansea at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Swansea Win	36%	@ 3.10	+12.0%
Draw	30%	@ 3.51	+4.7%
Derby Win	34%	@ 2.26	-23.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	29%	@ 3.59	+3.9%
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.90	+3.8%
Under 3.5	76%	@ 1.33	+1.0%
Over 1.5	71%	@ 1.29	-8.3%
Over 2.5	45%	@ 1.93	-12.5%
Over 3.5	24%	@ 3.31	-20.5%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Swansea?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.90 (+3.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Swansea?

Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Derby vs Swansea.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Swansea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.25 for Derby and 1.24 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Swansea play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.