⚽ Championship
Derby vs West Brom Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs West Brom in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Derby 0-1 West Brom
Derby vs West Brom finished 0-1. West Brom won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Derby face West Brom in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 4, while West Brom have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 3 meetings, Derby won 2, West Brom won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs West Brom with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Derby vs West Brom comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Derby and West Brom. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Derby 2 · West Brom 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Derby | 0 – 1 | West Brom | L |
| 2025-04-21 | West Brom | 1 – 3 | Derby | W |
| 2024-12-26 | Derby | 2 – 1 | West Brom | W |
📈 Recent form
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
- WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
West Brom come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Derby. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Wolves.
- LWolves 1-0 West BromChampionship
- DWest Brom 1-1 QPRChampionship
- WDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- WWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
- DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- F. BilbijaBack Injury
- R. BrewsterInjury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- C. MorrisCalf Injury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- L. TravisLeg Injury
- M. JohnstonBroken Leg
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derby at 35% to win and West Brom at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 35% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| West Brom Win | 35% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | @ 3.45 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.58 (63% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby or Draw | 63% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| West Brom or Draw | 63% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 68% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 47% | @ 1.96 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 53% | @ 1.77 |
| Under 1.5 | 32% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | 42% | @ 2.18 |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or West Brom is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby +1.75 | 86% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Derby +1.5 | 84% | – | 1.19 |
| West Brom +1.5 | 84% | – | 1.15 |
| Derby +1.25 | 79% | 77% | 1.24 |
| West Brom +1.25 | 78% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Derby +1 | 74% | 74% | 1.28 |
| West Brom +1 | 73% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Derby +0.75 | 68% | 66% | 1.44 |
| West Brom +0.75 | 68% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Derby +0.5 | 63% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| West Brom +0.5 | 63% | 67% | 1.40 |
| Derby +0.25 | 57% | 51% | @ 1.89 |
| West Brom +0.25 | 56% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Derby 0 | 50% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| West Brom 0 | 50% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Derby -0.25 | 44% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| West Brom -0.25 | 43% | 49% | 1.99 |
| Derby -0.5 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| West Brom -0.5 | 36% | 41% | 2.28 |
| Derby -0.75 | 32% | 25% | @ 3.81 |
| West Brom -0.75 | 31% | 34% | 2.80 |
| Derby -1 | 27% | 18% | @ 5.30 |
| West Brom -1 | 26% | 26% | 3.67 |
| Derby -1.25 | 22% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| West Brom -1.25 | 21% | 23% | 4.18 |
| West Brom -1.75 | 14% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derby vs West Brom?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.
Who is the favourite for Derby vs West Brom?
Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline for Derby vs West Brom.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs West Brom?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Derby and 1.27 for West Brom. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derby and West Brom play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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