⚽ Championship

Derby vs West Brom Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs West Brom in the Championship. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Derby face West Brom in the Championship, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Derby have 1 win from their last 4, while West Brom have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Derby won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs West Brom with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.10 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	11.9%	7.5%	3.2%	1.0%
1	10.3%	13.1%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	5.7%	7.2%	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%
3	2.1%	2.6%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawWest Brom win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs West Brom is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.18 (+13.3% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 2.18, 52% model probability, +13.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Derby 35%Draw 30%West Brom 35%

35%30%35%

35%

Derby Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+13.3%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Derby and West Brom. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Derby 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-21	West Brom	1 – 3	Derby	W
2024-12-26	Derby	2 – 1	West Brom	W

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at West Ham.

LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 0-3 SwanseaChampionship
DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship
LCharlton 2-1 DerbyChampionship

West Brom

West Brom come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Middlesbrough.

WWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship
LMiddlesbrough 3-1 West BromChampionship
LNewcastle 3-2 West BromLeague Cup
WWest Brom 3-1 BurnleyChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
C. ForsythNot in squad
C. MorrisNot in squad
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
L. TravisInjury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury

West Brom

M. JohnstonBroken Leg

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 35% to win and West Brom at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	30%	@ 3.45	+2.9%
Derby Win	35%	@ 2.88	+1.8%
West Brom Win	35%	@ 2.30	-19.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.58 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Derby or Draw	63%	@ 1.58	+0.3%
West Brom or Draw	63%	@ 1.38	-13.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	32%	@ 3.85	+21.3%
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.96	+13.2%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.36	+6.8%
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.23	-15.7%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 1.77	-25.2%
Over 3.5	22%	@ 2.95	-36.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	52%	@ 2.18	+13.3%
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 1.61	-22.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	37%
Dixon-Coles	Away	46%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.30 for the home side, 1.29 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs West Brom?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.18 (+13.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Derby vs West Brom?

Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline for Derby vs West Brom.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs West Brom?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Derby and 1.27 for West Brom. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and West Brom play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.