⚽ Segunda División

Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Eibar vs Valladolid in the Segunda División. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Eibar face Valladolid in the Segunda División, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Eibar win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 2.0-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Eibar vs Valladolid with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Eibar or Draw @ 1.25

86%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.02 – 0.74 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
1	12.8%	9.5%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
2	12.9%	9.6%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	8.7%	6.4%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
4	4.4%	3.2%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Eibar winDrawValladolid win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Eibar vs Valladolid is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Eibar or Draw at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 86%. On the match result, the model rates an Eibar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is an Eibar win at odds 2.26 (+49.7% model value).

Best value

Eibar Win at odds 2.26, 66% model probability, +49.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Eibar 66%Draw 21%Valladolid 13%

66%21%13%

66%

Eibar Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

+49.7%

Best value: Eibar Win

📈 Recent form

Eibar

Eibar come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Arenas Getxo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Tenerife.

LEibar 1-3 TenerifeSegunda División
DReal Unión 1-1 EibarFriendlies Clubs
WEibar 5-0 Arenas GetxoFriendlies Clubs
DAthletic Club 2-2 EibarFriendlies Clubs
DAlaves 1-1 EibarFriendlies Clubs

Valladolid

Valladolid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Gimnástica Segoviana. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mallorca.

LMallorca 2-0 ValladolidSegunda División
WSporting Gijon 2-4 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
WGimnástica Segoviana 0-3 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
LGroningen 1-0 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
WValladolid 4-1 CD CoriaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Eibar at 66% to win and Valladolid at 13%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes an Eibar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Eibar Win	66%	@ 2.26	+49.7%
Draw	21%	@ 2.84	-41.1%
Valladolid Win	13%	@ 3.65	-52.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Eibar or Draw at 1.25 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Eibar or Draw	86%	@ 1.25	+7.9%
Valladolid or Draw	33%	@ 1.60	-46.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	30%	@ 4.00	+19.7%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 2.25	+17.2%
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.40	+6.7%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.22	-14.5%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.62	-22.4%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 2.88	-31.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	55%	@ 1.83	+0.7%
BTTS Yes	45%	@ 1.83	-17.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	75%
Dixon-Coles	Home	57%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 2.08 for the home side, 0.81 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Eibar vs Valladolid?

Our main pick is Eibar or Draw at odds 1.25, with 86% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is an Eibar win at 2.26 (+49.7% value).

Who is the favourite for Eibar vs Valladolid?

Our model makes an Eibar win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.7 scoreline for Eibar vs Valladolid.

What is the predicted score for Eibar vs Valladolid?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.02 for Eibar and 0.74 for Valladolid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Eibar and Valladolid play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.