Empoli

Fri 11 Sep0-1Finished

Arezzo

⚽ Serie B

Empoli vs Arezzo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Empoli vs Arezzo in the Serie B. Kick-off Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Empoli 0-1 Arezzo

Empoli vs Arezzo finished 0-1. Arezzo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 2.5 goals at 1.63, landed.

Empoli face Arezzo in the Serie B, kicking off Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Empoli vs Arezzo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Empoli +0.5 @ 1.27

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.14 – 0.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	18.6%	10.1%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%
1	21.2%	11.5%	3.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2	12.1%	6.5%	1.8%	0.3%	0.0%
3	4.6%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Empoli winDrawArezzo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Empoli vs Arezzo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Empoli to win or draw at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. Goals lean under 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points no (72%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

76%

Under 2.5 goals

72%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Empoli

Empoli come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Carrarese. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Modena.

LModena 2-1 EmpoliSerie B
LEmpoli 0-1 ArezzoSerie B
WCarrarese 0-1 EmpoliSerie B
LMantova 3-1 EmpoliSerie B
WEmpoli 1-0 CremoneseSerie B

Arezzo

Arezzo come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Empoli. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to Sudtirol.

LArezzo 1-4 SudtirolSerie B
WEmpoli 0-1 ArezzoSerie B
LHellas Verona 5-0 ArezzoSerie B
LArezzo 2-3 PalermoSerie B
WAvellino 1-2 ArezzoSerie B

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Empoli or Draw at 1.20 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Empoli or Draw	78%	76%	@ 1.20
Arezzo or Draw	46%	51%	@ 1.78

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 76% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	91%	76%	@ 1.21
Under 2.5	76%	57%	@ 1.63
Over 1.5	50%	68%	@ 1.35
Under 1.5	50%	32%	@ 2.90
Over 2.5	24%	43%	@ 2.12
Over 3.5	9%	24%	@ 3.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 72%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	72%	52%	@ 1.75
BTTS Yes	28%	48%	@ 1.90

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Empoli or Arezzo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Empoli +0.75	82%	–	1.18
Arezzo +2	78%	84%	1.12
Empoli +0.5	78%	74%	1.27
Arezzo +1.75	74%	83%	1.15
Empoli +0.25	72%	70%	1.35
Arezzo +1.5	70%	76%	1.25
Empoli 0	66%	64%	1.49
Arezzo +1.25	64%	74%	1.28
Empoli -0.25	60%	53%	1.80
Arezzo +1	58%	70%	1.35
Empoli -0.5	54%	45%	2.10
Arezzo +0.75	52%	62%	1.54
Empoli -0.75	48%	38%	2.46
Arezzo +0.5	46%	55%	1.75
Empoli -1	42%	30%	3.19
Arezzo +0.25	40%	47%	2.06
Empoli -1.25	36%	26%	3.65
Arezzo 0	34%	36%	2.68
Empoli -1.5	30%	24%	3.88
Arezzo -0.25	28%	30%	3.21
Empoli -1.75	26%	17%	5.50
Arezzo -0.5	22%	26%	3.71
Empoli -2	22%	16%	6.00

📈 How the market moved

Empoli 45%Draw 30%Arezzo 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Empoli vs Arezzo?

Our model's main pick is Empoli to win or draw at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Arezzo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Empoli and 0.54 for Arezzo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Empoli and Arezzo play?

Kick-off is Friday 11 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.