Mon 7 Sep0-0Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Arouca Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Estoril 0-0 Arouca

Estoril vs Arouca finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Estoril face Arouca in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Estoril have no wins from their last 4, while Arouca have 3 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 2, Arouca won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.7-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Arouca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 1.58 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	6.0%	4.7%	2.5%	1.0%
1	6.4%	10.1%	8.0%	4.2%	1.7%
2	5.4%	8.6%	6.8%	3.6%	1.4%
3	3.1%	4.8%	3.8%	2.0%	0.8%
4	1.3%	2.0%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Estoril winDrawArouca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estoril vs Arouca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Estoril 35%Draw 26%Arouca 39%

35%26%39%

39%

Arouca Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Arouca. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: Estoril 2 · 2 drawn · Arouca 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-07	Estoril	0 – 0	Arouca	D
2026-04-06	Arouca	3 – 2	Estoril	L
2025-11-07	Estoril	4 – 3	Arouca	W
2025-03-16	Arouca	1 – 1	Estoril	D
2024-10-26	Estoril	4 – 1	Arouca	W

📈 Recent form

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Casa Pia.

LEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Santa Clara.

DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 1-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
WArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estoril at 35% to win and Arouca at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca Win	39%	30%	@ 3.15
Estoril Win	35%	42%	@ 2.23
Draw	26%	28%	@ 3.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.58 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca or Draw	65%	58%	@ 1.58
Estoril or Draw	61%	70%	@ 1.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	74%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	63%	49%	@ 1.86
Under 3.5	59%	71%	@ 1.30
Over 3.5	41%	29%	@ 3.15
Under 2.5	37%	51%	@ 1.82
Under 1.5	16%	26%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	54%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	36%	46%	@ 1.98

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estoril or Arouca is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arouca +1.75	87%	84%	1.12
Arouca +1.5	85%	–	@ 1.23
Estoril +1.5	82%	85%	1.12
Arouca +1.25	80%	78%	1.23
Estoril +1.25	77%	83%	1.14
Arouca +1	75%	75%	1.27
Estoril +1	72%	82%	1.16
Arouca +0.75	70%	66%	@ 1.43
Estoril +0.75	67%	74%	1.28
Arouca +0.5	65%	60%	@ 1.59
Estoril +0.5	61%	67%	1.41
Arouca +0.25	58%	53%	@ 1.81
Estoril +0.25	55%	63%	1.52
Arouca 0	52%	45%	@ 2.14
Estoril 0	48%	55%	1.72
Arouca -0.25	45%	37%	@ 2.54
Estoril -0.25	42%	47%	2.07
Arouca -0.5	39%	33%	@ 2.92
Estoril -0.5	35%	40%	2.38
Arouca -0.75	33%	26%	@ 3.66
Estoril -0.75	30%	34%	2.83
Arouca -1	28%	18%	@ 5.25
Estoril -1	25%	25%	3.79
Arouca -1.25	23%	17%	@ 5.75
Estoril -1.25	20%	22%	4.26
Arouca -1.5	18%	15%	@ 6.25
Estoril -1.75	13%	16%	6.00

📈 How the market moved

Estoril 40%Draw 28%Arouca 31%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Arouca?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Arouca?

Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.6 scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Arouca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for Estoril and 1.58 for Arouca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estoril and Arouca play?

Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.