vs
⚽ Primeira Liga
Estoril vs Arouca Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.
Result: Estoril 0-0 Arouca
Estoril vs Arouca finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Estoril face Arouca in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Estoril have 0 wins from their last 4, while Arouca have 3 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 2, Arouca won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.7-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Arouca with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Estoril vs Arouca is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates an Arouca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (64%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.86 (+18.0% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Arouca. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: Estoril 2 · 2 drawn · Arouca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Estoril | 0 – 0 | Arouca | D |
| 2026-04-06 | Arouca | 3 – 2 | Estoril | L |
| 2025-11-07 | Estoril | 4 – 3 | Arouca | W |
| 2025-03-16 | Arouca | 1 – 1 | Estoril | D |
| 2024-10-26 | Estoril | 4 – 1 | Arouca | W |
📈 Recent form
Estoril come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Benfica.
- DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- LBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- LNacional 2-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- DEstoril 1-1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Arouca come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Moreirense. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at FC Porto.
- DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- WArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- WGuimaraes 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Estoril at 35% to win and Arouca at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca Win | 39% | @ 3.15 | +22.6% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 3.35 | -13.8% |
| Estoril Win | 35% | @ 2.23 | -21.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arouca or Draw at 1.58 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca or Draw | 65% | @ 1.58 | +2.7% |
| Estoril or Draw | 61% | @ 1.30 | -20.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 41% | @ 3.15 | +30.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | @ 1.86 | +18.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | @ 1.25 | +4.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 59% | @ 1.30 | -23.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | @ 1.82 | -33.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | @ 3.50 | -43.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | @ 1.70 | +9.4% |
| BTTS No | 36% | @ 1.98 | -29.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estoril or Arouca is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca -1 | 28% | @ 5.25 | +47.4% |
| Arouca -1.25 | 23% | @ 5.75 | +31.1% |
| Arouca -0.75 | 33% | @ 3.66 | +22.0% |
| Arouca -0.25 | 45% | @ 2.54 | +15.1% |
| Arouca -0.5 | 39% | @ 2.92 | +12.7% |
| Arouca 0 | 52% | @ 2.14 | +10.9% |
| Arouca -1.5 | 18% | @ 6.25 | +9.6% |
| Arouca +0.25 | 58% | @ 1.81 | +5.7% |
| Arouca +1.5 | 85% | @ 1.23 | +4.0% |
| Arouca +0.5 | 65% | @ 1.59 | +3.7% |
| Arouca +0.75 | 70% | @ 1.43 | +0.1% |
| Arouca +1.75 | 87% | 1.12 | -2.1% |
| Arouca +1.25 | 80% | 1.23 | -2.1% |
| Arouca +1 | 75% | 1.27 | -4.8% |
| Estoril -1 | 25% | 3.79 | -4.9% |
| Estoril +1.5 | 82% | 1.12 | -7.6% |
| Estoril +1.25 | 77% | 1.14 | -12.0% |
| Estoril +0.5 | 61% | 1.41 | -13.4% |
| Estoril -0.25 | 42% | 2.07 | -13.9% |
| Estoril -1.25 | 20% | 4.26 | -14.4% |
| Estoril +0.75 | 67% | 1.28 | -14.7% |
| Estoril -0.75 | 30% | 2.83 | -15.0% |
| Estoril -0.5 | 35% | 2.38 | -16.6% |
| Estoril +1 | 72% | 1.16 | -16.6% |
| Estoril +0.25 | 55% | 1.52 | -16.7% |
| Estoril 0 | 48% | 1.72 | -17.1% |
| Estoril -1.75 | 13% | 6.00 | -24.2% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.86 (+18.0% value).
Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our model makes an Arouca win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.6 scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Arouca?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for Estoril and 1.58 for Arouca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Estoril and Arouca play?
Kick-off is Monday 07 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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