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⚽ Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Estoril face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Estoril have no wins from their last 5, while Moreirense have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Moreirense won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Moreirense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.33

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.50 – 1.20 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	8.1%	4.8%	1.9%	0.6%
1	10.1%	12.1%	7.3%	2.9%	0.9%
2	7.6%	9.1%	5.4%	2.2%	0.7%
3	3.8%	4.5%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Estoril winDrawMoreirense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Estoril win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Estoril 42%Draw 29%Moreirense 29%

42%29%29%

42%

Estoril Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Moreirense. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: 3 drawn · Moreirense 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-20	Moreirense	1 – 0	Estoril	L
2025-12-07	Estoril	3 – 3	Moreirense	D
2025-05-11	Moreirense	2 – 2	Estoril	D
2024-12-28	Estoril	2 – 2	Moreirense	D
2024-05-18	Moreirense	2 – 1	Estoril	L

📈 Recent form

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Académico de Viseu.

DSalgueiros 1-1 EstorilTaça de Portugal
LAcadémico de Viseu 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
LEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at AVS.

LAVS 1-0 MoreirenseTaça de Portugal
LMoreirense 0-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estoril at 42% to win and Moreirense at 29%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril Win	42%	49%	@ 1.91
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.60
Moreirense Win	29%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estoril or Draw at 1.28 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril or Draw	70%	75%	@ 1.28
Moreirense or Draw	56%	51%	@ 1.83

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	71%	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	51%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 2.5	49%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	29%	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	25%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	46%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Estoril 50%Draw 26%Moreirense 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Moreirense?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Moreirense?

Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline for Estoril vs Moreirense.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Moreirense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Estoril and 1.20 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estoril and Moreirense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.