Sat 24 Oct14:30Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Estrela da Amadora face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Estrela da Amadora have 1 win from their last 5, while Casa Pia have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Estrela da Amadora won 2, Casa Pia won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Estrela da Amadora win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.56 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	7.6%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
1	10.2%	11.9%	7.0%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.3%	5.4%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.1%	4.8%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.9%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Estrela da Amadora winDrawCasa Pia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Estrela da Amadora win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Estrela da Amadora 37%Draw 34%Casa Pia 30%

37%34%30%

37%

Estrela da Amadora Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia. Wins shown from Estrela da Amadora’s perspective: Estrela da Amadora 2 · Casa Pia 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-18	Estrela da Amadora	1 – 2	Casa Pia	L
2026-03-20	Estrela da Amadora	4 – 0	Casa Pia	W
2025-11-01	Casa Pia	3 – 5	Estrela da Amadora	W
2025-02-09	Casa Pia	1 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	L
2024-08-31	Estrela da Amadora	0 – 1	Casa Pia	L

📈 Recent form

Estrela da Amadora

Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Fazendense. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Arouca.

WFazendense 1-2 Estrela da AmadoraTaça de Portugal
LArouca 1-0 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alpendorada. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Santa Clara.

WAlpendorada 0-1 Casa PiaTaça de Portugal
LCasa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estrela da Amadora at 37% to win and Casa Pia at 30%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes an Estrela da Amadora win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estrela da Amadora Win	37%	54%	@ 1.73
Draw	34%	27%	@ 3.50
Casa Pia Win	30%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estrela da Amadora or Draw at 1.18 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estrela da Amadora or Draw	67%	80%	@ 1.18
Casa Pia or Draw	60%	46%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	71%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	51%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 2.5	49%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 3.5	29%	28%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS No	46%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Estrela da Amadora 54%Draw 26%Casa Pia 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes an Estrela da Amadora win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia.

What is the predicted score for Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Estrela da Amadora and 1.17 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia play?

Kick-off is Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.