⚽ Premier League

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Everton vs Manchester United in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Everton face Manchester United in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Everton have 1 win from their last 5, while Manchester United have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Everton won 1, Manchester United won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester United win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.3-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Everton vs Manchester United with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.46

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.31 – 1.38 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	9.4%	6.5%	3.0%	1.0%
1	8.9%	12.3%	8.5%	3.9%	1.3%
2	5.8%	8.0%	5.5%	2.6%	0.9%
3	2.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Everton winDrawManchester United win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Everton vs Manchester United is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.46, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester United win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.46, 72% model probability, +4.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Everton 31%Draw 28%Manchester United 41%

31%28%41%

41%

Manchester United Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+4.6%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Everton and Manchester United. Wins shown from Everton’s perspective: Everton 1 · 1 drawn · Manchester United 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-23	Everton	0 – 1	Manchester United	L
2025-11-24	Manchester United	0 – 1	Everton	W
2025-02-22	Everton	2 – 2	Manchester United	D
2024-12-01	Manchester United	4 – 0	Everton	L
2024-03-09	Manchester United	2 – 0	Everton	L

📈 Recent form

Everton

Everton come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Preston. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DBournemouth 1-1 EvertonPremier League
WPreston 0-4 EvertonLeague Cup
WEverton 2-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
DEverton 1-1 LilleFriendlies Clubs
WNewcastle 1-3 EvertonFriendlies Clubs

Manchester United

Manchester United come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Ipswich. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Hull City.

WManchester United 5-2 IpswichPremier League
LHull City 2-0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
LManchester United 2-4 AC MilanFriendlies Clubs
DLeeds 1-1 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
DManchester United 1-1 Paris Saint GermainFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Everton

C. NorgaardInjury

Manchester United

C. BalebaAnkle Injury
A. DialloInjury
M. UgarteKnee Injury
M. de LigtBack Injury
T. HeatonInjury
M. MountFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Everton at 31% to win and Manchester United at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Manchester United win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Everton Win	31%	@ 3.40	+4.4%
Draw	28%	@ 3.50	-1.7%
Manchester United Win	41%	@ 2.12	-12.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Everton or Draw at 1.71 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Everton or Draw	58%	@ 1.71	-1.1%
Manchester United or Draw	68%	@ 1.30	-11.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	25%	@ 4.50	+12.7%
Under 2.5	50%	@ 2.16	+7.2%
Under 3.5	72%	@ 1.46	+4.6%
Over 1.5	75%	@ 1.20	-10.1%
Over 2.5	50%	@ 1.68	-15.3%
Over 3.5	28%	@ 2.70	-23.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	45%	@ 2.35	+5.5%
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.54	-15.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	39%
Dixon-Coles	Away	42%
GradientBoosting	Away	43%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.19 for the home side, 1.41 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Everton vs Manchester United?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.46, with 72% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Everton vs Manchester United?

Our model makes a Manchester United win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline for Everton vs Manchester United.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Manchester United?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Everton and 1.38 for Manchester United. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Everton and Manchester United play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.