⚽ Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Fenerbahçe face Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Fenerbahçe have 3 wins from their last 5, while Beşiktaş have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.68

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.95 – 1.45 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	4.8%	3.5%	1.7%	0.6%
1	6.5%	9.4%	6.8%	3.3%	1.2%
2	6.3%	9.2%	6.7%	3.2%	1.2%
3	4.1%	6.0%	4.3%	2.1%	0.8%
4	2.0%	2.9%	2.1%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Fenerbahçe winDrawBeşiktaş win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.68, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.68, 66% model probability, +10.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Fenerbahçe 50%Draw 21%Beşiktaş 29%

50%21%29%

50%

Fenerbahçe Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

+10.9%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Samsunspor. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Gençlerbirliği S.K..

WSamsunspor 0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
WLyon 1-2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
WFenerbahçe 4-2 KonyasporSüper Lig
DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
LGençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at home to Çorum FK. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Kauno Žalgiris.

WBeşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FKSüper Lig
LKauno Žalgiris 1-0 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League
LAlanyaspor 1-0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
WBeşiktaş 3-0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa League
WBeşiktaş 1-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fenerbahçe

J. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon Injury
C. SoyuncuInjury
TaliscaNot in squad

Beşiktaş

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 50% to win and Beşiktaş at 29%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Beşiktaş Win	29%	@ 4.30	+25.1%
Fenerbahçe Win	50%	@ 1.70	-15.4%
Draw	21%	@ 3.75	-20.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Beşiktaş or Draw at 2.07 (52% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Beşiktaş or Draw	52%	@ 2.07	+8.5%
Fenerbahçe or Draw	73%	@ 1.20	-12.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.75	+21.4%
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.68	+10.9%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.18	+0.7%
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.43	-20.1%
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.10	-28.6%
Under 1.5	15%	@ 4.20	-38.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	65%	@ 1.66	+8.1%
BTTS No	35%	@ 2.06	-28.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
Dixon-Coles	Home	50%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.54 for the home side, 1.09 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.68, with 66% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş.

What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.95 for Fenerbahçe and 1.45 for Beşiktaş. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.