Girona

Sat 12 Sep1-2Finished

Castellón

⚽ Segunda División

Girona vs Castellón Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Girona vs Castellón in the Segunda División. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Girona 1-2 Castellón

Girona vs Castellón finished 1-2. Castellón won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.35, landed.

Girona face Castellón in the Segunda División, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC. Recent form: Girona have 2 wins from their last 4, while Castellón have 3 wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Castellón won 1, 1 drawn. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Girona vs Castellón with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.35

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.51 – 1.49 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	7.4%	5.5%	2.7%	1.0%
1	7.5%	11.2%	8.3%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.7%	8.5%	6.3%	3.1%	1.2%
3	2.9%	4.3%	3.2%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.1%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Girona winDrawCastellón win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Girona vs Castellón comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.35, with a 65% model probability. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Girona and Castellón. Wins shown from Girona’s perspective: 1 drawn · Castellón 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Girona	1 – 2	Castellón	L
2026-07-29	Girona	3 – 3	Castellón	D

📈 Recent form

Girona

Girona come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Las Palmas. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Castellón.

WCadiz 1-2 GironaSegunda División
LGirona 1-2 CastellónSegunda División
WSporting Gijon 0-2 GironaSegunda División
WGirona 5-2 Las PalmasSegunda División
LCordoba 2-1 GironaSegunda División

Castellón

Castellón come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Tenerife. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Levante.

WCastellón 5-0 TenerifeSegunda División
WGirona 1-2 CastellónSegunda División
WCastellón 2-0 AlbaceteSegunda División
DCastellón 0-0 SabadellSegunda División
LCastellón 1-3 LevanteFriendlies Clubs

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Girona or Draw at 1.28 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Girona or Draw	64%	71%	@ 1.28
Castellón or Draw	63%	56%	@ 1.64

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	76%	@ 1.21
Under 3.5	65%	68%	@ 1.35
Over 2.5	58%	53%	@ 1.74
Under 2.5	42%	47%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	35%	32%	@ 2.90
Under 1.5	20%	24%	@ 3.85

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	57%	@ 1.60
BTTS No	40%	43%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Girona 44%Draw 28%Castellón 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Girona vs Castellón?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.35, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

What is the predicted score for Girona vs Castellón?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Girona and 1.49 for Castellón. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Girona and Castellón play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.